Lead: Recently, the gasoline market in Shandong has strengthened, with 92# gasoline priced at 8,062 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton from the previous period, a month-on-month increase of 1.19%, and a year-on-year increase of 469 yuan/ton, or 6.18%. Supply of aromatic-related products has tightened, leading to a modest price increase.

1. The strong performance of the gasoline market has driven prices of aromatic-related products higher.

Recently, prices of aromatic-related products have edged up. The average price in the Shandong market was 6,381 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous period, while the East China market stood at 6,051 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. International crude oil futures have been relatively weak, offering limited support to the market. During the week, the gasoline market maintained a strong trend, supported by cost and production cut news, making it more likely to rise than fall. Combined with decent downstream gasoline demand, some plants shifted production, leading to further reductions in aromatic-related product supply and active price hikes.

2. Analysis of changes in market demand

Looking at recent production and sales, entering June, production and sales of aromatic-related products in Shandong have been relatively stable. In the early part of the week, supported by rising crude oil prices and downstream restocking, market transactions gained momentum, with the three-day average production-sales ratio reaching around 120%. Although transaction activity slowed later, overall prices remained firm. Under the influence of a sharp decline in crude oil prices, essential demand transactions were still around 70%.

3. Market forecast

In the near term, domestic demand remains weak, with high gasoline inventories dampening willingness to procure raw materials. However, the overall decline in gasoline prices has narrowed significantly. International crude oil still has room to fall further, and support from market sentiment and gasoline retail prices to the aromatics sector is insufficient. On the supply side, due to plant production shifts, supply in Shandong has further declined. Some plants have depleted their inventories and have no product flowing out. In summary, the short-term market still lacks sustained demand support and will largely follow gasoline price fluctuations, with prices consolidating narrowly. However, supported by costs and supply, the decline will be weaker than that of gasoline.