Entering June, the domestic ethylene tar market has shown an upward trend. As of June 5, the price of ethylene tar in North China stood at 3,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4.35%; it has risen by 250 yuan/ton over two consecutive weeks, a gain of 7.46%. The following is an analysis of subsequent price movements:

I. Negative Factors Emerge for High-Temperature Coal Tar

Due to safety accidents in coal mines, there is an expectation of reduced coal tar supply, providing short-term upward momentum. Recently, operating rates remain high across downstream sectors, including deep processing and carbon black, sustaining strong demand for coal tar. As supply tightens, new order quotations in Northwest China and Shanxi have reached domestic highs this week.

However, overall downstream product performance is weakening. Both coal tar pitch and carbon black, the two major downstream products, face resistance to further price increases, and downstream plants generally hold a pessimistic outlook for future product trends. Consequently, resistance to high-end coal tar prices has gradually emerged this week. It is expected that the coal tar market will enter a transitional phase next week, with increasing difficulty for continued price rises and a possibility of declines.

II. Difficulty in Sustaining Carbon Black Price Increases

Entering June, end-user tire market demand has been relatively weak, with a decline in just-in-time procurement. Additionally, as prices were pushed up, end-users are waiting for opportune moments to enter the market, resulting in limited actual transaction volumes. During the week, raw material coal tar prices rose, continuously expanding cost-side pressure, leaving the carbon black market operating at a loss. With further raw material price increases becoming difficult, and waning cost support, there is a possibility that new carbon black order prices may decline.

III. Improving Anode Demand

Both power batteries and energy storage are benefiting from overseas market expansion, driving anode material production based on orders. Downstream demand is robust, improving supply-demand dynamics. Currently, orders for anode materials are seeing positive sentiment. Due to tight capacity in captive graphitization, anode manufacturers are increasingly outsourcing processing, leading to a surge in commissioned orders and rising raw material procurement needs, thereby boosting the operating rate of the coating pitch industry. In June, southern China enters the wet season, offering more favorable electricity costs. Supported by both supply and demand, graphitization operations are expected to enter their annual peak period.

IV. Persistent Tightness in Ethylene Tar Supply

On the supply side, ethylene tar is experiencing concentrated maintenance shutdowns and a sharp decline in external sales volume. Sinopec Yangzi Petrochemical entered maintenance on May 5, 2026, lasting an estimated 55 days; Sino-Korea Ethylene (Wuhan) began maintenance on June 4, 2026, for about 52 days, reducing commercial availability. Hainan Refining & Chemical on June 6 and Shenghong Petrochemical on June 25 will successively enter maintenance, further reducing external supply. Gulei Petrochemical's unit has not yet started up, so no external sales are available. Maoming Petrochemical and Jieyang Petrochemical have shifted to captive use in June, contracting external supply.

V. Auction Price Increases Provide Support

The auction price of ethylene tar at Yulong Petrochemical has risen to 4,100 yuan/ton, providing psychological support to the market.

Overall Market Assessment

Currently, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined and competing. Tightening supply, combined with the recovery of anode demand, provides upward support for the market. However, declining high-temperature coal tar price spreads and weak demand from the carbon black industry are dragging down raw material procurement, with bearish factors gradually materializing. Based on the logic of supply tightening, domestic ethylene tar prices from major producers are likely to maintain upward momentum in the short term, with the market center of gravity tending to strengthen. In the medium to long term, as bearish factors continue to ferment, fundamental support will weaken marginally, and cautious observation is still necessary from an operational perspective.