Introduction: Since late April, the price of polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer has been on a continuous decline. As of June 4, the mainstream price of polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer EPEG settled at 7,275 RMB/ton, a decrease of 28.33% from the peak price in April. Currently, the price decline of monomer manufacturers within the market is slowing, with a strong willingness to support prices. Factors supporting price firmness are concentrated on two aspects: first, the raw material ethylene oxide price has stopped falling, and its short-term price trend is expected to be firm, providing bottom-up support from the cost side; second, the supply of goods within the market has decreased, with most manufacturers maintaining low-load operations, reducing inventory accumulation; third, after previous consumption, downstream players have some willingness to replenish inventory. Supported by costs and supply-demand dynamics, market pessimism may improve compared to the earlier period, and the overall market trend is likely to stabilize with a firm bias.

Price: Support from costs and easing supply-demand pressures slow the decline

As of June 4, the mainstream price of polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer EPEG in East China was 7,150-7,400 RMB/ton, down 2,875 RMB/ton (a decrease of 28.33%) from the April high of 9,900-10,400 RMB/ton, and up 3.56% year-on-year compared to 2025 prices. The short-term price decline was relatively large, hitting a periodic low after the weakening impact of geopolitical conflicts. Since late April, the overall market trend has been persistently weakening with no significant rebound or recovery, and the overall pricing system for polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer has continued to move downward. Looking at the pace of price trends, with the implementation of the ethylene oxide price reduction in early June, combined with concentrated maintenance of ethylene oxide plants in the market, the supply of goods has shown a reduction. Driven by supply, the ethylene market has seen price increases. Supported by supply and raw materials, the ethylene oxide price has stabilized temporarily, providing some bottom-up support to the monomer market. Monomer manufacturers maintain low-load operations. Downstream bearish sentiment has weakened compared to the earlier period, with selective purchasing based on low prices for essential needs. Supported by costs and somewhat eased supply-demand conflicts, the decline in monomer market prices has slowed. As of June 4, the weekly price decline for East China polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer was 225 RMB/ton, a decrease of 125 RMB/ton compared to the previous week's decline.

Influencing Factor 1: Raw material ethylene oxide price stabilizes, providing cost-side support

On June 2, ethylene oxide market prices in East China, South China, and Central China all fell to 6,800 RMB/ton, a decline of 800-950 RMB/ton; prices in Northeast and North China both fell to 6,650 RMB/ton, a decline of 850 RMB/ton. After this price decline, ethylene oxide has temporarily stabilized. The main reasons are: On the cost side, domestic available supply has significantly decreased. The two major mainstream markets, Shandong and East China, have entered a state of tight supply. Supply-side benefits support strong ethylene prices, providing guidance from the cost side. On the supply side, with concentrated maintenance at plants including Gulei Petrochemical, Taixing Jinyan, Yangzi Petrochemical, Far Eastern Union, Wanhua Chemical, Ningbo Fude, Hainan Refining & Chemical, and Wuhan Petrochemical, the supply of goods has decreased. As of June 4, the weekly production of ethylene oxide was approximately 8.91 tons, down 6.01% month-on-month; capacity utilization was 40.12%, down 2.58 percentage points month-on-month.

Influencing Factor 2: Supply volume decreases, inventory accumulation slows

Currently, the overall operating rate of the domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer industry has declined significantly. Some enterprises have arranged for plant maintenance shutdowns or actively reduced loads and output. The overall supply of goods in the market shows a significant reduction trend. As of June 4, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer industry was 25.54%, down 1.82% month-on-month and down 10.6% year-on-year; weekly production was 28,300 tons, down 6.60% month-on-month and down 26.68% year-on-year. The low overall industry operating rate slows the rate of inventory accumulation, providing some support for stopping the price decline.

After previous inventory consumption, downstream users have some willingness to replenish stock. The order-taking situation for monomer manufacturers has improved compared to the earlier period, and inventory accumulation has decreased. As of June 4, the sellable inventory rate at domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer factory ends was 13.83%, down 4.84 percentage points month-on-month; the sellable inventory volume was 26,300 tons, down 9,200 tons from the previous cycle. As the sellable inventory volume decreases, even though terminal demand has not seen a significant increase, the market supply-demand conflict has eased compared to the earlier period.

Influencing Factor 3: Demand follows essential needs, seasonal volume increase limited

Looking at the downstream terminal industry, the recent dispatch volume of commercial concrete has recovered month-on-month, providing essential demand support for polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer. As of June 4, the current concrete operating rate was 6.72%, up 0.27% month-on-month; dispatch volume was 1,346,000 cubic meters, up 4.23% month-on-month. However, the new construction area for real estate remains at a low level, and the overall terminal demand recovery momentum is limited. Coupled with the current traditional peak construction season, monomer demand has marginally improved. However, with the arrival of the rainy season, the overall terminal operating intensity is insufficient, leading to improved monomer demand but limited seasonal volume increase. The market is dominated by essential needs, making a concentrated surge difficult.

Polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer market price is already below the cost line, with expectations of stopping decline and rebounding

Based on the current fundamentals of the polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer market, after a round of deep correction, prices have fallen below the industry cost bottom line. The space for further decline is already very limited, and bottom support for the market is gradually emerging. Currently, the upstream raw material ethylene oxide is expected to maintain stability, supported by cost of ethylene and reduced supply. As monomer market prices bottom out and stabilize, monomer manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. Coupled with low-price goods likely gradually attracting some essential-needs terminal players to replenish stock at low points, the subsequent market transaction atmosphere is expected to improve compared to the earlier period. Overall, the downside risk for the current polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer market situation is converging, and prices may have room for rebound and recovery. It is expected that the monomer market will stop declining in the short term, with expectations of a slight upward exploration.