Introduction: According to data from ChempriceHub, the mainstream granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port hit a new high of 9,600 yuan/ton on June 8. Given current market sentiment and supply-demand fundamentals, sulfur prices may reach 10,000 yuan/ton in the short term.

If someone had suggested at the beginning of this year that domestic sulfur spot prices could break through the 10,000 yuan threshold, it would likely have been dismissed as a fantasy. This is because, in previous market perceptions, even if sulfur prices surged rapidly, they would soon decline. Of course, industry insiders had repeatedly stated that for the domestic sulfur market to reach unprecedented heights, it would require Middle East XXXX. However, what was once a joke has now become reality. As sulfur prices actually behave this way, merchants express all kinds of disbelief. The sustained price momentum driven by ongoing supply shortages has truly shown the industry the principle of "master one move and thrive everywhere."

As is well known, the continuous contraction on the supply side has been the core factor driving sulfur prices to new highs since late February to early March. As a byproduct of refining, sulfur cannot be rapidly expanded in production based on market demand. Meanwhile, there has always been a significant gap in domestic resource supply, necessitating large-scale imports to fill the shortage. The ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East situation further escalate, restricting local resource outflows due to shipping limitations. This has kept the international sulfur market in a state of tight supply and firm prices. High resource prices naturally raise risk awareness among domestic merchants, leading to cautious handling of imports. This, combined with continuously limited arrivals of imported cargoes and declining port inventories, has trapped the domestic market in a cycle of tight supply and high prices.

Entering June, domestic major producers have implemented a targeted supply model, reshaping the original regional resource supply-demand balance. Cross-industry resource searches by other downstream chemical sectors, along with replenishment operations by long-term contract traders, have further exacerbated the resource shortage, driving the market trend stronger. This month, due to constraints on crude oil resources or scheduled maintenance at major domestic producers and some local regional enterprises, overall sulfur supply is expected to decrease significantly month-on-month, further intensifying domestic supply pressure.

Faced with the current extremely strong market trend, the future development must be viewed rationally, as multiple uncertainties are affecting the market.

First, the situation in the Middle East remains unclear. The persistence of geopolitical risks and the subsequent recovery of shipping and supplies are uncertain, directly impacting the pace of replenishment from imported goods. Second, the targeted supply pattern of domestic resources will not change in the short term. Procurement measures by downstream chemical and new energy companies will disrupt the original trading rhythm and balance of the port spot market. In addition, the replenishment pace of long-term contract traders is still unclear, which will directly affect the tightness of circulating spot stocks and price changes.

Overall, the domestic sulfur market still has room for upward movement in the short term. After a surge, the market is likely to shift to high-level fluctuations. The core fundamentals of the current market have not shown improvement. In June, the supply from major domestic refineries may remain low, and the tight situation of imported cargo arrivals is unlikely to ease. Even if major producers direct resources to the phosphate fertilizer sector, some companies will still enter the spot market for replenishment, further diverting spot resources. Meanwhile, the Middle East situation remains a key variable influencing market trends, as geopolitical developments directly affect the pace of overseas cargo flows. The current price may not have reached the year's peak; the true high point this year still awaits verification. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East situation, import arrival volumes, and overall downstream procurement trends, awaiting further market realization.