Introduction: In May, domestic dichloromethane prices exhibited a pattern of upward movement in the first ten days, followed by a decline in the mid-to-late period, with broad-range volatility throughout the month. Within the month, supply-demand fundamentals played a dominant role, while cost-side disturbances also exerted an influence, and demand-side structural differentiation was evident. For the month, the average price of dichloromethane in the main producing region of Shandong was 2,260 RMB/ton, down 2.82% from the previous month. From an operational logic perspective, phased supply contraction drove up prices in the first ten days; the concentrated restart of units coupled with demand drag led to price declines in the later part of the month. Supply-demand mismatches ran through the entire month's market.

Table 1 Comparison of price changes for domestic dichloromethane and related products (Unit: RMB/ton)

| Product | Grade/Market | May 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2025 | MoM% | YoY% |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Liquid Chlorine | Shandong | 305 | 429 | -82 | -28.90% | 471.95% |
| Methanol | Dongying, Shandong | 2989 | 2977 | 2269 | 0.40% | 31.73% |
| Dichloromethane | Shandong | 2260 | 2325 | 2112 | -2.80% | 7.01% |
| Chloroform | Shandong | 2837 | 2850 | 2026 | -0.46% | 40.03% |
| Refrigerant | R32 | 63500 | 63214 | 50053 | 0.45% | 26.87% |
| Refrigerant | R22 | 22289 | 19595 | 34447 | 13.75% | -35.29% |

Source: chempricehub

I. Low inventory pressure for enterprises in early May; rapid volume release after restart in late May

In May, chloromethane unit shutdowns and production cuts involved three plants: Dongyue (380,000 tons/year), Guangxi Jinyi (370,000 tons/year), and Hengyang Jindong (200,000 tons/year). Although some units resumed normal operation during the month, the overall lost output exceeded the resumed volume, resulting in a decline in capacity utilization. The industry-wide operating rate once fell below 70%, with low social inventory. With no pressure on enterprise shipments, domestic mainstream offers remained stable in the first ten days. However, entering the mid-to-late month, previously overhauled units gradually restarted, and the industry operating rate quickly rebounded to over 80%. Market supply was released concentratedly, enterprise inventory levels rose, and shipment pressure increased.

II. Continuing structural differentiation in demand side; cautious market trading sentiment

Downstream demand continued the pattern of "refrigerants providing a floor, traditional solvents remaining weak." R32 refrigerant, as the largest downstream sector, had regular purchasing from supporting plants as needed, providing stable fundamentals and forming a market bottom. However, most refrigerant producers have captive raw material capacity, limiting external procurement growth and failing to drive sustained price increases. Demand from pharmaceutical intermediates and electronics cleaning remained stable, while traditional solvent segments such as coatings, paint strippers, and polyurethane foaming experienced demand declines due to high raw material prices and weak end-user demand. With dichloromethane prices relatively high, mid- and downstream players resisted high prices, generally adopting small-batch just-in-time purchases, leading to subdued market transactions. On the export front, overseas demand was limited; dichloromethane export prices lacked competitiveness this month, coupled with high maritime freight rates, resulting in relatively limited monthly export volumes, insufficient to absorb incremental domestic supply.

III. Weakening cost side; limited support for market

Logic of cost, profit, and price impact on chloromethane units: This month, raw material methanol fluctuated at a high level, while liquid chlorine prices fell, reducing production cost pressure for chloromethane and improving profitability compared to the previous month. In May, the average cost of chloromethane was 2,379 RMB/ton, down 124 RMB/ton or 4.95% MoM. The average profit in May was 155 RMB/ton, up 92 RMB/ton or 146.03% MoM.

IV. Unchanged oversupply pattern; June expected to see lower price center

Looking ahead to June, there are few planned maintenance turnarounds, and new capacity release is stable, resulting in a very loose supply environment. Attention should be paid to potential unplanned outages or cost-driven shutdowns. On the downstream demand side, the major downstream refrigerant industry will produce evenly in line with quotas, providing stable support for dichloromethane. Other downstream segments show divergence: pharmaceutical and agricultural sectors have stable demand, while traditional low-end segments continue weak, offering little overall improvement. On the cost side, methanol is expected to remain at high levels with fluctuations, while liquid chlorine prices fluctuate frequently, continuously squeezing enterprise profit margins. Although exports have some resilience, overseas production releases limit incremental export space, making it difficult to effectively offset domestic supply pressure. In summary, June dichloromethane is expected to show low-level volatility, with a slight downward shift in the price center and periodic narrow-range rebounds. Supply and demand will remain the core market-driving factors, with the market center expected to move lower compared to May. Enterprises will mainly adopt a market-following, fast-in-fast-out strategy, while closely monitoring the phased impact of raw material price fluctuations, temporary unit maintenance, and changes in export orders on the market.