Lead: As of June 4, the weekly average price in the Northwest high-olefin C5 market was 6,161 CNY/ton, down 146 CNY/ton or 2.31% from the previous week.

I. High-Olefin C5 Market Review

Recently, the spot market for high-olefin C5 in the Northwest experienced a decline followed by a rebound, with prices fluctuating between 6,083 and 6,217 CNY/ton. International oil prices rose this week, and the refined oil market in Shandong followed suit, prompting local refineries to raise their quotations accordingly. Supported by demand and coupled with the maintenance of the MTO unit at Jiangsu Sierbang, supply-demand fundamentals provided a boost, driving up high-olefin C5 prices. Refineries maintained firm pricing for sales. Given the relatively high cost-performance ratio of high-olefin C5, traders and downstream plants appropriately chased higher prices, resulting in active market transactions.

II. Price Comparison of High-Olefin C5 and Related Products

| Product | Region | Current Period Avg | Previous Period Avg | Change | Change % | Unit |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| International Crude Futures | WTI | 91.64 | 93.88 | -2.24 | -2.39% | USD/bbl |
| | Brent | 94.91 | 99.23 | -4.32 | -4.35% | USD/bbl |
| Mixed C5 | Shandong | 5,384 | 5,466 | -82 | -1.50% | CNY/ton |
| | East China | 5,340 | 5,610 | -270 | -4.81% | CNY/ton |
| Raffinate | Shandong | 5,668 | 5,688 | -20 | -0.35% | CNY/ton |
| | East China | 5,730 | 5,820 | -90 | -1.55% | CNY/ton |
| Cracking C5 Residue | National | 5,170 | 5,223 | -53 | -1.01% | CNY/ton |
| High-Olefin C5 | Northwest | 6,161 | 6,307 | -146 | -2.31% | CNY/ton |
| Gasoline (92#) | Dongying | 8,062 | 7,967 | 95 | 1.19% | CNY/ton |

Data source: chempricehub

The C5 light fraction market saw an overall decline. International oil prices fluctuated upward this week. The refined oil market in Shandong followed the uptrend, with local refineries raising their quotations accordingly. Midstream and downstream players entered the market, and trading sentiment was moderate. The C5 light fraction market fell before rebounding, but the average price still ended lower. Under positive market news, refineries took the opportunity to raise prices. However, traders and downstream plants lacked confidence in the market, limiting their purchasing enthusiasm, and overall market buying and selling activity was moderate.

III. Market Outlook

International oil prices are expected to have room to fall next week, with WTI likely to range between 90-98 USD/bbl and Brent between 92-100 USD/bbl. The core logic for this forecast is that the U.S. has once again signaled positive intentions for negotiations, easing geopolitical tensions. The market believes the likelihood of a full-scale conflict between the U.S. and Iran is low, and oil prices may trend downward amid volatility.

Gasoline prices also have room to decline. The new round of refined oil retail price limit adjustments is expected to move into negative territory. Therefore, news will continue to bear down on the market. Refineries face increasing sales pressure, but due to persistently high costs, there is limited room for price cuts. End-users and traders remain cautious in their purchasing operations, and the market is characterized by strong wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that diesel and gasoline prices at independent refineries in Shandong will fluctuate downward by about 50 CNY/ton next week.

Overall, the domestic high-olefin C5 market is expected to remain stable with fluctuations today. Although international oil prices have room to fall, the gasoline market's decline is limited due to high-cost support. With bullish and bearish factors in contention, the high-olefin C5 market is expected to fluctuate narrowly next week, with the mainstream price range between 6,000 and 6,300 CNY/ton.