Over the past five years, the MMA industry has seen continuous capacity expansion, gradually shifting the supply-demand dynamics. As upstream supply grows rapidly, industry insiders are closely watching whether downstream sectors can keep pace with expansion to achieve coordinated development across the industrial chain. The following provides a brief analysis, using a comparison of PMMA pellets and MMA as an example.

I. MMA Capacity Expected to Surpass 3 Million Tons, with a Five-Year Compound Growth Rate of 10.06%

As shown in Figure 1, MMA capacity has been steadily increasing year by year, achieving a qualitative leap. In 2022, new capacity additions reached a five-year peak of 38.26%. Between 2022 and 2025, capacity growth rates fluctuated between 8.15% and 38.26%. As of June 2026, domestic MMA capacity stood at 2.955 million tons.

As shown in Figure 2, preliminary statistics indicate that planned MMA capacity for the second half of the year amounts to 200,000 tons. If these projects come on stream as scheduled, total capacity is expected to surpass 3 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.51%, with the five-year compound growth rate remaining above 10%.

II. PMMA Pellet Capacity and Output Both Growing, Expected to Double Compared to 2022

As shown in Figure 3, PMMA pellet capacity has grown rapidly over the past five years. As of June 2026, domestic capacity has exceeded 1 million tons, essentially doubling from 2022 levels. It is projected that capacity will continue to increase further in 2026, with a five-year compound growth rate reaching 23.96%. This indicates a significant transformation in the supply structure of PMMA pellets.

As shown in Figure 4, PMMA pellet output has steadily increased alongside capacity growth. During the 2022–2025 period, the most notable increases in both capacity and output occurred in 2024, with growth rates of 27.78% and 22.39%, respectively. It is estimated that output in 2026 will surpass 500,000 tons, achieving year-on-year growth.

III. Against the Backdrop of MMA Growth, Downstream PMMA Pellet Demand for MMA Increases

From the analysis in Sections I and II, it is evident that while upstream MMA supply is growing, downstream PMMA pellet capacity is also on an upward trend. In terms of capacity growth rates, due to a smaller base, PMMA pellets are growing faster than MMA. The reasons for the expansion of PMMA pellet capacity include, in part, the attraction of previous profit margins, the demand for captive raw material supply, and the inherent development needs of the industry itself.

As PMMA pellet capacity expands, its production output steadily increases. As one of the major downstream segments for MMA—since the main raw material for PMMA pellets is MMA—higher output directly drives increased demand for MMA feedstock. If new capacity comes on stream as planned in the second half of the year, MMA demand from this sector is expected to exceed 500,000 tons in 2026.

IV. Extension: Changes in the Supply-Demand Relationship Between MMA and PMMA Pellets—Will Price Movements Be Fully Synchronized?

As noted earlier, the supply structures of both MMA and PMMA pellets have undergone a qualitative transformation, with the supply-demand landscape experiencing critical shifts. These changes directly impact price fluctuations. Due to factors such as differing plant maintenance schedules, varied downstream demand conditions, and the timing of new capacity additions in a given year, the supply-demand dynamics of the two products differ significantly at different stages. As a result, the correlation between MMA and PMMA pellet price movements has weakened over the past two years.

Looking ahead, PMMA pellet prices may align with MMA trends during periods of sharp MMA volatility or when near-term supply-demand conditions are similar. However, for most of the time, both products will ultimately return to their own supply-demand fundamentals, which will remain a constant factor throughout the price fluctuation cycles of both products.