Introduction: During this review period, the domestic dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market experienced narrow-range volatile adjustments, with the price center shifting slightly upward. However, the upward potential was constrained by weak demand, and the market maintained a stalemate consolidation pattern under the interplay of multiple bullish and bearish factors.

I. Cost Side: Mixed Movements in Feedstock Prices, Coexistence of Support and Constraint

From a cost perspective, the price centers of raw materials propylene oxide (PO) and methanol showed some downward movement, yet the cost support logic remained intact, exerting differentiated impacts on the market at different stages.

Recently, the feedstock market exhibited a divergence. On the PO front, due to production cuts and maintenance at some units, on-site supply was tight, and inventory pressure was absent for producers. Prices once surged strongly to the year's high, providing a clear cost floor support for DMC. Although methanol prices retreated slightly after a periodic spike, they still maintained an upward trend overall. The simultaneous rise of these two key raw materials was one of the core bullish factors that halted DMC's decline and prompted a recovery. However, because the price increase of DMC itself was significantly weaker than that of the feedstocks, industry profitability, while slightly improved, remained low. Some production routes even remained loss-making, limiting producers' capacity to absorb high-priced raw materials. Therefore, the cost side acted more as a "support floor" rather than a "driver". While a deep price decline in the market is unlikely, upward transmission is also blocked, creating a clear divergence between feedstock price fluctuations and DMC price movements.

II. Supply Side: Concentrated Plant Maintenance, Phased Tightening of Regional Supply

On the supply front, this was the primary supporting factor during the period, with industry capacity utilization declining noticeably and spot supply tightening.

Affected by concentrated maintenance shutdowns and production cuts at several units, the overall operating rate of the DMC industry decreased. According to industry statistics, the operating rate once fell to around 57.15%. The shutdowns involved multiple units including Yulin in Shaanxi, the second phase of Spolek in Jiangsu, a major plant in Shandong, Tongling in Anhui, and Ningbo Dafeng Jiangning New Materials. This led to tighter spot supply in the main producing regions of Shandong and East China. Against this backdrop, inventories at most factories were low or under no pressure, with some factories even operating on order-based deliveries. Holders showed a clear reluctance to sell at low prices, lifting offer prices tentatively. The mainstream acceptance ex-works price in the Shandong market fluctuated in the range of 3380-3650 yuan/ton. However, this supply contraction was widely regarded by the market as a "phased" phenomenon. On one hand, large-scale integrated producers maintained full production, and the overall pattern of industry overcapacity remains unchanged. On the other hand, the Tongling, Anhui plant is scheduled to restart in mid-June, and the Ningbo Dafeng unit is initially planned to resume operations at the end of June. As maintenance units gradually come back online, the supply-side bullish factor will be progressively weakened, and the market holds expectations of a supply recovery in the future.

III. Demand Side: Basic Support from Steady Demand but Limited Incremental Growth, Characterized by Weak Domestic Demand and Strong Exports

Demand-side performance was the key variable constraining price increases during this period, displaying a structural characteristic of "weak domestic demand, reliance on steady orders, and support from exports".

From a domestic demand perspective, downstream and end-user enterprises primarily adopted a strategy of purchasing based on rigid needs. The capacity utilization rate of the key downstream polycarbonate (PC) industry was 72.40%, an increase of 0.49% from the previous period. This week, Covestro's PC line operations recovered further; Shanghai Mitsubishi and Pingmei Shenma's PC units both resumed operations. However, Sichuan Tianhua's PC unit entered a scheduled maintenance period starting on the 22nd. Overall operating rates for other domestic PC units were generally stable compared to the previous period. Overall, domestic PC production and capacity utilization both increased slightly from the prior week. In the segments of ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC) and electrolyte solvents, limited improvement in operating rates due to the pace of new energy demand recovery meant their pulling effect on DMC was insignificant. Traditional solvent sectors like coatings, adhesives, and pesticides are also in the off-season for chemical consumption, providing only basic demand support without incremental elasticity. Although downstream inquiries and replenishment paces accelerated slightly during this period, and trading sentiment warmed compared to earlier stages, this improvement stemmed more from concerns over supply contraction and a fear-driven rush to buy rather than a substantial release of end-user demand. Notably, the fulfillment of export orders became one of the few bright spots on the demand side. The maintenance of some overseas units led to supply gaps abroad. Concentrated export orders provided a certain degree of support by diverting domestic supply, presenting a pattern of "weak domestic demand, strong exports".

Overall Assessment:

In summary, the current DMC market is in a stalemate phase, "constrained on the upside by weak demand but supported on the downside by costs and supply contraction". The tight spot supply resulting from plant maintenance and holders' reluctance to sell supported a slight upward shift in the price center. However, insufficient improvement in downstream demand, the unchanged pattern of industry overcapacity, and expectations for the gradual restart of maintenance units all suppressed the space for price increases. Future market trajectory requires close monitoring of the pace of plant restarts, the intensity of downstream procurement follow-through, and changes in raw material costs. It is expected that the market will maintain a narrow-range oscillation in the near term, with difficulty moving significantly in either direction.