Introduction: In the first quarter of 2026, China's domestic acetone market staged a strong rebound from a five-year price low. Concurrently, acetone imports for January and February also showed significant growth. Imports in January 2026 reached 40,000 metric tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.53%. In February, imports surged sharply to approximately 57,500 metric tons, soaring 43.75% month-on-month and 103.9% year-on-year. This surge in imports resulted from the combined effect of multiple factors, including a domestic supply-demand mismatch, price rebound signals, and the concentrated arrival of international shipments. Considering that shipments from Saudi Arabia have been disrupted since March due to the Middle East conflict, and facilities in South Korea and Thailand have been forced to reduce operating rates due to a lack of raw materials, acetone imports are expected to decline in the second quarter.

According to customs statistics, China's acetone imports in January 2026 amounted to 40,010.11 metric tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.51%. The average import price was USD 510.89 per ton, up 1.16% month-on-month. Saudi Arabia was the largest source, supplying 14,980.40 metric tons at an average price of USD 494.39 per ton.

In February 2026, acetone imports reached 57,494.87 metric tons, a month-on-month increase of 43.70%. The average import price was USD 522.12 per ton, up 2.20% month-on-month. Saudi Arabia remained the top source, supplying 25,666.68 metric tons at an average price of USD 509.87 per ton.

A comparison of trading partners for January-February shows that China's primary sources of acetone imports remain relatively stable, including Saudi Arabia, Thailand, South Korea, and Taiwan, China.

With disruptions to some traditional supply sources in 2026, importers actively adjusted their procurement strategies. Due to the shutdown of some phenol-acetone units in Japan in 2025, no shipments arrived from Japan in January or February. In Taiwan, China, a 485,000 tons/year phenol-acetone unit was shut down in January, resulting in no shipments in February and an overall import volume decrease of 64.25% year-on-year. Only a small volume arrived from Singapore in February.

These changes in import supply have led to a concentration of sourcing towards Saudi Arabia and Thailand. From January to February, Saudi Arabia accounted for 41.69% of imports, Thailand for 31.21%, and South Korea for 20.78%. Settlements for these three major sources are primarily in Chinese Yuan. The stable supply from Saudi Arabia and Thailand has made them the preferred choices for domestic importers.

According to customs statistics for January-February 2026, the main domestic import destinations for acetone were Zhejiang, Chongqing, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Fujian, and Shandong provinces/municipalities. Import volumes were 21,400 tons, 21,300 tons, 20,500 tons, 14,900 tons, 14,200 tons, 3,400 tons, and 1,900 tons, respectively. Other regions accounted for minimal shares.

Overall, Zhejiang, Chongqing, and Guangdong have substantial acetone import volumes. This is driven by stable demand from downstream deep-processing industries in these regions. Zhejiang leverages its ports and trade to scale up imports, Chongqing uses imports to supplement resource gaps, and Guangdong's imports are pulled by end-user demand.

The domestic acetone market entered a strong upward trend in the first quarter. By the end of Q1, prices in East China reached RMB 7,900-7,950 per ton. Rising domestic prices opened up import arbitrage opportunities, making overseas sources more price-competitive and prompting domestic importers to increase procurement. The sharp rise in February imports was also directly influenced by shipping schedules, with some January shipments delayed. Simultaneously, the domestic price recovery improved importers' expectations, contributing to the significant year-on-year increase in acetone imports for January-February.

Q2 Import Outlook:

Based on the current situation, China's monthly acetone imports in Q2 2026 are highly likely to decline from the high levels seen in Q1.

Although phenol-acetone units at Moyiwei Chemical (560,000 tons/year) and Gaohua Materials (400,000 tons/year) are scheduled for maintenance in Q2, the startup of Shandong Ruilin's new 350,000 tons/year phenol-acetone capacity is expected to largely offset the domestic supply gap, potentially reducing some import demand.

After domestic acetone prices peaked near RMB 8,000/ton in Q1, downstream buyers for bisphenol A and isopropanol became cautious in their procurement due to cost pressure. Furthermore, maintenance plans for some downstream units in Q2 will further compress procurement demand.

Supply disruption concerns triggered by the Middle East situation in late February once stimulated a surge in import orders for March. However, in Q2, as geopolitical tensions ease and domestic prices retreat, the import arbitrage window has narrowed significantly, directly dampening traders' purchasing appetite.

In the longer term, as the Middle East situation cools down and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, import shipments from major sources like Saudi Arabia are expected to normalize.

Looking ahead to Q2, the market dynamics for acetone are likely to shift from being driven by geopolitics to a focus on supply-demand fundamentals. Import volumes are expected to retreat from their highs to more rational levels. Close attention is advised on import arrival data for April and the following months.