Lead-in: Looking back at recent market trends, the acetone market experienced a rapid surge driven by cost pressures, with East China prices briefly breaking through the 9,000 RMB/ton threshold to hit a year-to-date high. However, the suppressive effect of these high prices on downstream industries soon became apparent. Sectors such as Bisphenol A (BPA), MMA, isopropanol, and MIBK are generally operating at a loss, resulting in limited capacity to absorb expensive raw materials, which led to a decline in the acetone price center. With the Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, the acetone market, after experiencing significant volatility earlier, showed a slight rebound following the drop today, entering a consolidation phase. As of September 20, the negotiated price range for acetone in Jiangsu was 8,700–8,850 RMB/ton.
As the holiday approaches, pre-holiday stockpiling demand has been released, providing temporary support to market operators. The intention to sell low has weakened, and sentiment to hold prices firm has emerged. Some downstream end-use factories have replenished their inventory based on actual demand, leading to an increase in inquiries and forming a certain floor effect on the spot market. With holders' sentiment boosted, offers have become slightly firmer. Petrochemical companies have largely chosen to maintain stable sales orders, allowing the acetone market to stabilize and rebound after consecutive declines.
From the domestic supply perspective, Shandong Fuyu's 250,000-ton/year phenol-acetone unit is scheduled to restart feedstock injection on September 21. Wanhua Chemical's 780,000-ton/year unit is expected to resume operations around September 25. Consequently, the utilization rate of domestic phenol-acetone units is projected to rise to approximately 89% in late September.
Recent port inventories in Jiangyin have dropped to a five-year low of 0.65 million tons. Insufficient arrival of ship cargoes to replenish stocks has resulted in strong reluctance among port cargo holders to sell. The tightness in circulating spot resources remains difficult to change, providing momentum for the acetone market price to rebound after its decline.
| Date | Quantity (10k tons) |
|---|---|
| Acetone Arrival (4th week, Aug 24–Aug 30) | 0.46 |
| Acetone Arrival (1st week, Aug 31–Sep 6) | 0.63 |
| Acetone Arrival (2nd week, Sep 7–Sep 13) | 0.15 |
| Expected Acetone Arrival (3rd week, Sep 14–Sep 20) | 0.97 |
| Expected Acetone Arrival (4th week, Sep 21–Sep 27) | 0.80 |
| Total | 3.01 |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
According to Chempricehub’s shipping schedule statistics, there are 24,200 tons of goods in transit for late September, with an expected 17,500 tons arriving this week. Additionally, 5,000 tons of goods are in transit for October. As subsequent ship cargoes arrive to replenish stocks, East China port inventories are expected to increase, with projections suggesting port stocks could rise to the level of 15,000 tons by the end of September.
The emergence of pre-holiday stockpiling demand may provide short-term support for acetone prices. However, expectations of supply recovery suggest that domestic supply is likely to grow, aligning with previous forecasts of a "tight early, loose later" scenario. Amidst interwoven bullish and bearish factors, Chempricehub expects that the acetone market will not see a significant rebound in the short term. Once pre-holiday stockpiling concludes, the market price center faces risks of further downward movement.
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