Since late April, the domestic market price of industrial-grade acetonitrile has been oscillating and weakening. The mainstream ex-works price in the East China market dropped from 11,250 yuan/ton to around 10,550 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.22%; while in the Shandong market, it fell from 11,100 yuan/ton to around 10,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.21%. During this period, the acetonitrile market exhibited weak supply and weak demand. Specifically, supply from the by-product method decreased significantly, while export demand also saw a phased reduction. Additionally, the rapid decline in raw material costs for the synthetic method led to a lack of market confidence. Spot negotiations gradually moved lower, but the overall downward trend remained relatively moderate.

The main raw material for synthetic acetonitrile production is glacial acetic acid. In March-April, its price first rose rapidly and then retreated sharply. Since the consumption of acetic acid in synthetic acetonitrile production is relatively high, around 1.6-1.7 times, the significant fluctuation in acetic acid prices also caused notable volatility in the cost of the synthetic method. Starting from mid-April, due to industry inventory buildup and resistance from downstream users, acetic acid prices fell quickly, causing the production cost of synthetic acetonitrile to drop sharply from above 11,000 yuan/ton to below 9,000 yuan/ton. At the same time, the decline in synthetic production costs stimulated an increase in industry operating rates, raising synthetic supply and thus weakening the positive support brought by the reduction in by-product supply.

Alongside the lack of cost support, overall acetonitrile demand also weakened. In particular, the concentrated release of export orders from earlier overseas supply gaps, which had largely covered demand for April-May, led to a phased decline in market buying interest. Furthermore, although demand in high-purity and pharmaceutical sectors remained relatively stable, major manufacturers primarily rely on direct supply. Additionally, consumption in the pesticide sector is gradually being replaced by recycled acetonitrile, reducing the operational space for intermediaries and thus dampening the spot market atmosphere.

During this round of acetonitrile price decline, the southern and northern markets showed divergence. In the East China region, due to low operating rates at major by-product plants—including Zhejiang Petrochemical, Shanghai SECCO, and Sierbang—inventories at these large factories remained low. Moreover, high-purity and pharmaceutical consumption is mainly concentrated in the East China market, limiting the price decline compared to the Shandong market. Cross-regional arbitrage opportunities between the two regions also existed.

There has always been a strong negative correlation between the operating rates of by-product acetonitrile plants and product prices. While the earlier sharp rise in acetonitrile prices was mainly supported by export orders, it was also driven by reduced by-product supply. Moreover, the relatively slow decline in acetonitrile prices recently is primarily due to the persistent insufficient supply from the by-product method. However, entering May, some by-product plants have completed maintenance. For example, CNOOC Fudao’s Hainan plant has restarted and resumed operations, and two units at Zhejiang Petrochemical are also in the process of resuming operations. In mid-May, Jilin Petrochemical will also end its maintenance, increasing its operating rate from 50% to full capacity. It is expected that the overall operating rate of by-product plants will gradually rise from below 65% to around 75%, increasing the supply of by-product acetonitrile. Therefore, the acetonitrile market is likely to maintain a downward trend in the short term. However, since the main product, acrylonitrile, remains loss-making, attention should still be paid to changes in by-product plant operating rates, as there is still an expectation of a phased supply reduction in June.