Since mid-March 2026, MMA prices have remained elevated. The market experienced two rounds of fluctuations in March, with prices in East China ranging between RMB 13,000–13,800/ton in mid-March. From late March to early April, MMA prices consistently stayed above RMB 14,000/ton. As of the time of writing, the monthly average price in East China has risen from RMB 13,294/ton in March to RMB 14,863/ton, an increase of 11.80%. After a period of consolidation at high levels in early April, market sentiment softened this week due to subdued domestic trading. As of April 13, negotiations in East China are referenced at RMB 14,600–14,800/ton, with some offers slightly below the lower end or above the higher end, though overall transaction volumes remain limited.

Weak Trading Follows High-Level Stalemate, Leading to a Decline

(1) From March to April 2026, the MMA market sustained high-level operations, exceeding industry expectations. The market underwent two rounds of fluctuations in March, driven by multiple factors including exports, supply-side dynamics, and cost pressures. The average MMA price in East China in March was RMB 13,294/ton, up 41.15% month-on-month, contrasting sharply with the increases of 1.67% and 2.10% in January and February, respectively.

(2) Against the backdrop of significant price volatility, supply-demand dynamics differed between East China and South China markets, leading to variations in the timing and magnitude of price movements. The average price spread between South China and East China from March to April was RMB 868/ton, significantly higher than the full-year 2024 average of RMB 671/ton, with periods reaching RMB 1,000–1,500/ton.

Limited Supply-Side Pressure Supports Prices; Average Capacity Utilization in March–April Below 2025 Levels

Due to an expanded MMA capacity base in 2026, the estimated average monthly production for March–April is 159,000 tons, slightly higher than the 153,200 tons in the same period of 2025. In terms of industry capacity utilization, monthly rates from February to April 2026 remained below 2025 levels. Specifically, MMA capacity utilization in March–April was 60%, down 3 percentage points year-on-year. This indicates limited supply-side pressure, serving as a key supporting factor for sustained high market prices.

Demand Side: Supported by Rigid Domestic Demand and Export Needs

Since March 2026, exports have emerged as another significant factor influencing market price fluctuations, providing clear support to the market in mid-to-late March. Domestically, some downstream enterprises were forced to reduce operating rates due to high costs. In the acrylic industry, increased use of recycled materials partially offset high prices of virgin materials, yet this failed to alter the overall high-price environment for MMA. This underscores that market dynamics are influenced by multiple, rather than single, factors.

Short-Term Market Outlook:
(1) Supply side: Beyond previously idled facilities, recent maintenance at Zhejiang Petrochemical’s unit and planned maintenance at some Northeast China facilities in mid-April are expected to further reduce capacity utilization. Producers are primarily fulfilling contract and export orders, with relatively limited inventory pressure.
(2) Demand side: Downstream sectors are mainly executing contracts, facing significant cost pressures and resistance to high-price procurement, though rigid demand persists. The planned commissioning of two PMMA pellet plants in April–May warrants attention.
(3) Market sentiment: Negotiation dynamics are evident, with sellers adjusting to market conditions and buyers purchasing based on immediate needs.
(4) Geopolitical factors: Uncertainty remains regarding the impact of geopolitical tensions on industry chain fluctuations.

In summary, while supply-side factors currently provide support, weak domestic demand is leading to a gradual downward shift in negotiation benchmarks. Post-decline end-user acceptance and export dynamics require further monitoring. Coupled with ongoing market uncertainties, medium- to long-term trends remain unclear amid intertwined factors. Continued attention to market variables is essential.