Introduction
Currently, with no sustained positive support for demand, fluorite has entered a downward cycle. Industry sentiment, influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, has already pushed market expectations for fluorite prices below the 3,000 yuan/ton threshold. However, given the backdrop of strong domestic regulatory oversight, the normalization of safety inspections, and the boost from high-demand downstream sectors, the center of gravity for fluorite prices is unlikely to decline unchecked.

Strong Regulation Fuels Upgrades: Proactive Policy Control at the Source

Due to its resource scarcity and strategic value, China has implemented a series of policies to enforce strong regulation on the fluorite industry, promote upgrading, and maintain stringent front-end control. Beginning in 2004, the state gradually tightened restrictions: export tax rebates for fluorite were reduced in 2004 and completely abolished in 2006; access standards for the fluorite industry were introduced in 2012, raising the bar in terms of equipment, resource utilization, and environmental protection; in 2016, fluorite was classified as a strategic mineral alongside rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and others; in 2024, a safety rectification policy was issued to strengthen source management, substantially accelerating industry consolidation; and in 2026, energy consumption quota standards were established. The overall trajectory shows a shift from loose regulation to strong oversight and strict protection. The core objectives are to standardize mining practices, safeguard high-quality domestic resources, force industrial upgrading, raise industry entry barriers, optimize the industry layout, and ensure the safe development of the supply chain while effectively managing front-end control for emerging industries such as new energy.

Enterprise Upgrades: Integration Becomes the Main Theme of Development

Against the backdrop of stringent policy controls and normalized environmental and safety inspections, small and medium-sized mines in China are accelerating their closure and exit. The long-standing structural shortcomings of the fluorite industry—characterized by "more small mines, fewer large ones; more raw ore, fewer processed products; more low-grade ore, fewer high-grade resources"—are gradually being optimized. The CR5 concentration ratio has risen from 30% in 2020 to 47% in 2025, and the CR10 has increased from 39% to 60%. Leading companies are accelerating resource integration and mine acquisitions, with the industry increasingly concentrating among large-scale enterprises. High-quality, high-grade fluorite resources are further converging toward leading miners, while small enterprises are steadily losing their resource and cost advantages.

The integrated layout of the industrial chain is not only the fundamental guarantee for cost optimization but also the strategic foundation for enterprises to extend their demand development. As the only natural industrial source of fluorine, fluorite has an extremely broad downstream coverage, spanning traditional industries, high-end chemicals, new energy, semiconductors, and national defense and military sectors. This creates a structure where traditional rigid demand forms the main body and emerging tracks drive incremental growth. High-grade lump fluorite is primarily used in the metallurgical industry as a flux to lower melting points and improve smelting efficiency, or in the building materials industry for glass and ceramics. Low-grade lump fluorite, after flotation, yields fluorite powder, which then reacts with sulfuric acid to produce hydrofluoric acid. Hydrofluoric acid serves as a medium to extend into two major branches: organic fluorides and inorganic fluorides, forming the starting point for high-value-added fluorochemical products. Among these, organic fluorides represent the most widely applied and largest market segment in the fluorochemical industry chain. The core sectors include fluorine-containing refrigerants and their supporting fluororesins and fluororubbers, as well as fluorine-containing fine chemicals. Currently, refrigerants and their downstream applications are the most widely used and account for the largest share of fluorite consumption. Inorganic fluorides are divided into fluoride salts and electronic fluorides. The electronic fluoride category includes high-growth tracks such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid, and fluorine-containing specialty gases, which are three high-demand sectors in the subsequent fluorite industry chain.

Industry Consolidation Enhances Quality and Efficiency: The Fluorite Industry Remains Steady and Positive

As domestic policies tighten step by step—especially the special safety rectification of fluorite mines in 2024—large-scale production suspensions and capacity cuts by mining enterprises in major domestic producing areas have opened up a supply gap. Industry players have turned to Mongolian sources as a significant supplement. With the resumption of production by domestic mining enterprises, foreign-sourced materials have a low-price advantage, shifting from "gap-filling" to "substitution," which has put domestic resources under passive pressure. Since 2025, China's fluorite market has entered a gradual downward cycle. Notably, in July 2025, the market transaction center broke through 3,000 yuan/ton, reaching 2,950 yuan/ton, approaching the industry's "survival line" of 2,500 yuan/ton. If prices fall below this line, an estimated 50% of small and medium-sized mines would face shutdowns, forming a natural price floor. For enterprises with their own mines, resource advantages and continuously expanding cost benefits are evident, with costs in the range of 1,500-1,600 yuan/ton, allowing substantial profits even during price downturns. In contrast, fluorite flotation enterprises have costs close to the industry average, with limited room for reduction, making them the first to face profit compression when prices fall. Therefore, enterprises with captive mines, leveraging their resource advantages, maintain high profit margins and far greater risk resilience than flotation companies that rely on purchased raw ore. In the short term, fluorite prices will experience periodic fluctuations due to import impacts and seasonal demand changes. However, in the long run, supply rigidity, rising costs, and growing demand jointly support a high price center. Industry competition will enter a new phase characterized by "cost as king and resources as the key to victory," which also entails a systematic increase in the discourse power and pricing power of fluorite, shifting upward along the supply chain.