[Introduction] The low import level in the coastal methanol market persists, and the recovery timeline remains unknown. Downstream consumption is weak under the combined effects of low raw material inventories and the off-season for downstream consumption. With the tug-of-war between low imports and weak demand, prices are oscillating and consolidating. However, as port methanol inventories continue to decline and market circulating volumes gradually shrink, supply tightness may become increasingly pronounced, leading prices to oscillate with a stronger bias.

I. Port Methanol Supply Remains at Low Levels

The low level of import supply in the coastal methanol market continues. Compared to previous years, the duration is longer, and the recovery is delayed. Moreover, the specific recovery time is currently unclear, and market concerns over import supply are gradually intensifying.

Figure 1: Comparison of Weekly Methanol Import Volume Trends, 2025-2026 (10,000 tons)

Source: chempricehub

Although some domestic supply has supplemented and eased the coastal methanol shortage, due to factors such as transport capacity and low inventory levels at production plants, domestic supply cannot fully cover the demand shortfall in the coastal market.

II. Weak Demand Side

As shown in the table below, downstream profits have mostly contracted during this period, with theoretical profit values for most downstream sectors showing losses. Under such loss conditions, downstream players are resistant to high feedstock prices, which to some extent suppresses downstream demand.

Table 1: Weekly Theoretical Profit Changes in the Methanol Chain (RMB/ton)

| Product | This Period | Last Period | Change | Percentage Change |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Methanol - Inner Mongolia Coal-based | 481.0 | 484.25 | -3.25 | -0.67% |
| Methanol - Southwest Gas-based | 210 | 165 | 45 | 27.27% |
| Methanol - Hebei Coke Oven Gas-based | 922 | 938.33 | -16.33 | -1.74% |
| MTO | -964.8 | -518 | -446.8 | -86.25% |
| Formaldehyde - Shandong | -95 | -80 | -15 | -18.75% |
| Glacial Acetic Acid - East China | -213.06 | -75.42 | -137.64 | -182.50% |
| MTBE - Shandong | 611 | 774 | -163 | -21.06% |
| Methane Chloride - Shandong | 223 | 190 | 33 | 17.37% |
| Source: chempricehub | | | | |

In addition to the impact of downstream profits, insufficient downstream raw material inventories are also an important factor affecting downstream demand. For some integrated plant companies, the profit performance across the full industrial chain is acceptable, but due to the low regional methanol supply, it is expected that plants may shut down due to raw material shortages. Under this influence, demand could weaken further.

III. Long-Short Game Continues, but Declining Inventories Highlight Supply Tightness

Supply—especially import supply—is short, while demand is weak. The fundamentals remain in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors. However, port methanol inventories continue to decline and are currently at low levels, with room for further decline. The reality of supply shortages is likely to become increasingly evident, and port basis may trend higher. Attention should be paid to the impact of changes in subsequent market circulating volumes on market prices.

Figure 3: Comparison of Weekly Port Methanol Inventory Trends, 2025-2026 (10,000 tons)

Source: chempricehub