I. Analysis of China's Ethanol Imports and Exports

Trends in China's Ethanol Import and Export Volume, 2023-2025

According to data statistics and analysis from Chempricehub, China's domestic ethanol market has long maintained a pattern of oversupply, with extremely low import dependence. This is primarily due to sufficient domestic supply, which puts upward pressure on domestic ethanol prices and leaves international resources without a price advantage. Export data shows significant fluctuations in China's ethanol exports in recent years. Based on customs data, China's ethanol export volume reached approximately 37,400 tons in the first half of 2025, a substantial year-on-year increase of 567.93%. The main influencing factors are: 1. Under the oversupply situation in the Chinese ethanol market, prices have continued to decline, opening the export arbitrage window and leading to a significant increase in China's ethanol exports. Furthermore, the United States, as the world's largest ethanol exporter, also maintained strong export momentum in 2025, reflecting favorable global demand trends for ethanol, which also provides potential export opportunities for Chinese ethanol.

The fluctuation in China's ethanol export volume in 2025 is the result of the combined regulation by domestic "push" factors (oversupply) and foreign "pull" factors (periodic demand) through the "arbitrage window" valve. It has not yet formed a stable growth trend but rather manifests as opportunity-driven, pulse-type growth.

Major Export Destinations and Product Structure: In terms of flow, neighboring Asian countries are the primary export markets. The Philippines ranked first among China's ethanol export trading partners in the first half of 2025, accounting for a high 52.71%, followed by Saudi Arabia and Singapore. Regarding product type, the vast majority of exported ethanol is unmodified ethanol.

Reasons for the Increase in China's Exports to the Philippines:

1. Reduction from the Philippines' Original Importing Countries: The Philippines originally relied mainly on the United States and Brazil for imports. However, with policy adjustments following agreements between Europe and the US, US ethanol exports shifted towards Europe. Meanwhile, Brazil implemented E30 in 2025, and coupled with high sugar prices (the main raw material for Brazilian ethanol) early in the year, Brazilian ethanol prices became relatively high, losing their cost advantage. Consequently, Philippine ethanol demand shifted towards China.
2. Intensified Supply-Demand Contradiction in China: The domestic market price remained low, giving China a certain cost advantage in the export market. This opened short-term arbitrage opportunities, allowing China to replace part of the export shares of the US and Brazil.

However, China's ethanol exports to the Philippines exhibit clear pulse-type characteristics and are not stable. For example, after a peak in April 2025, export volumes in subsequent months declined due to a narrowing international arbitrage window. By September 2025, China's ethanol export share to the Philippines had fallen to a relatively low level. This reflects that the ethanol trade between the two countries is largely driven by temporary price arbitrage opportunities.

Distribution of Domestic Export Origins: Aligning with the distribution of domestic ethanol production regions, Heilongjiang is the most significant ethanol export shipping location, accounting for 90.96% of the national total export volume in April 2025.

II. Forecast for China's Ethanol Imports and Exports During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period (2026-2030)

Chempricehub data forecasts that in the future, with continued growth in domestic industrial ethanol production, export volumes may be maintained between 26,000 and 35,000 tons. In the short term, volatility in China's ethanol exports is likely to persist. On one hand, there is uncertainty in the global trade landscape; on the other hand, new domestic production capacity (especially in the industrial ethanol sector) may continue to intensify supply pressure, thereby strengthening enterprises' motivation to seek exports.

In the long term, whether Chinese ethanol can occupy a more important position in the international market depends mainly on the following factors: 1. Whether domestic cost competitiveness holds an advantage and whether sustained exports to the Southeast Asian market are possible; 2. Overseas demand has not shown a stable upward trend, and periodic demand cannot support the continuous expansion of overseas ethanol markets.

III. End Uses of China's Ethanol Exports

| Export Destination | Direction | Primary Use |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Philippines | Primarily fuel use, supplemented by edible use | Of the ethanol exported to the Philippines in April 2025, approximately 64% was for fuel and about 46% for edible purposes. 70%-80% of domestic demand in the Philippines is for fuel. |
| Singapore | Industrial and chemical feedstock | Unmodified ethanol exported to Singapore is mainly used as a production raw material for chemical products such as methyl ethyl carbonate and ethyl ether. |
| South Korea | Pharmaceutical, daily chemicals, medical aesthetics, and partial chemical feedstock | Used in pharmaceuticals, daily chemicals, medical aesthetics, and as a feedstock for some chemical products. |

Source for all data and forecasts: Chempricehub