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Analysis of China's Methanol Import and Export Monthly Forecast Data (March 2026)

Published on 2026-04-01
  1. Overview of Import and Export Data

Data source: China Customs, Chempricehub Information

In March 2026, the final actual discharge of China’s methanol imports from foreign vessels was 424,500 mt (counted upon berthing, excluding Russian overland shipments), down significantly by 460,200 mt, or 52.01%, from the previous month’s imports of 884,700 mt.

Data source: China Customs, Chempricehub Information

China’s methanol exports in March 2026 are estimated at around 50,000 mt, a sharp increase of 34,800 mt, or 228.95%, from the previous month’s export volume of 15,200 mt.

  1. Influencing Factors

Imports: Geopolitical conflicts have caused a blockade of the strait, severely affecting global methanol supply.

Exports: Geopolitical conflicts/strait blockade have severely affected supply in Asia; overseas prices have climbed even more sharply on supply concerns, supporting a significant increase in China’s exports and re-exports.

  1. Import/Export Structure

China Methanol Imports by Trading Partner—Monthly Estimate Based on Foreign Vessel Data (March)

Trading Partner Volume (mt) Import Share
Middle East 215,000 50.65%
Venezuela 37,000 8.72%
Malaysia 32,500 7.66%
Russia 31,000 7.30%
Saudi Arabia 31,000 7.30%
New Zealand 25,000 5.89%
Oman 21,000 4.95%
Trinidad 17,000 4.00%
Chile 15,000 3.53%
Total 424,500 100.00%

Data source: Chempricehub Information

  1. Trend Forecast

Methanol cargoes discharged in March are estimated at 424,500 mt, of which 215,000 mt came from the core Middle East source region and 209,500 mt from non-Iranian cargoes. In March, only 220,800 mt was loaded from the core Middle East source region (the possibility remains that a few individual vessels have not yet been tracked). Total imports in April are expected to recover moderately to between 589,400 and 629,400 mt, with supply from the core Middle East source region estimated at 247,300–287,300 mt and non-Iranian supply recovering slightly to around 329,100–349,100 mt. (Due to multiple port-related factors, cargo arrival times may change; actual port arrivals are subject to final discharge at the terminal.)

Comments

0
  • Wei Zhang 2026-09-08 10:45
    I see March's methanol trade shock as a geopolitics-driven margin squeeze: imports halved, exports tripled. April recovery expectations should ease feedstock costs, but downstream utilization remains a watch point.
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