In recent years, the regional price spreads for MMA have shifted from exhibiting a certain degree of arbitrage opportunities to becoming increasingly irregular. Tracing the root causes, price changes are inseparable from supply and demand dynamics. Behind the changes in industry supply and demand, the supply-demand structures in various regions are also undergoing transformation. Taking the price spread between South China and East China as an example, instances of price parity or inversion have frequently occurred in recent years, no longer following the pattern of maintaining freight cost differentials. So, what changes have taken place between regions?

I. Analysis of Average Annual Price Spreads: East China–Shandong and South China–East China

Table 1: Comparison of MMA Regional Price Spreads, 2022–2026 (RMB/ton)

| Region | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Jan–Jun 2026 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| East China | 11,784 | 11,320 | 13,857 | 10,230 | 11,895 |
| South China | 12,368 | 11,619 | 14,301 | 10,901 | 12,660 |
| Shandong | 11,658 | 11,148 | 13,779 | 10,176 | 11,789 |
| East China – Shandong | 126 | 172 | 78 | 54 | 106 |
| South China – East China | 584 | 299 | 444 | 671 | 765 |

As shown in Table 1, tracking the average annual price changes from 2022 to the first half of 2026, the price spread between East China and Shandong remained above RMB 100/ton in 2022–2023. Although it did not fully cover all freight cost ranges within East China, it preserved the freight spread for major regions. With escalating supply-demand tensions, the regional spread fell below RMB 100/ton in 2024–2025, leaving no significant arbitrage space. In 2026, due to differing regional price movement characteristics, the spread recovered somewhat but remained limited. Regarding the South China–East China spread, it fell below the freight cost of RMB 500/ton in 2023–2024. In 2025–2026, the spread recovered. These changes in regional spreads are closely tied to regional supply-demand relationships.

II. Trends in Regional MMA Price Spreads

As shown in Figure 1, from 2022 to 2026, the price spread between East China and Shandong for MMA fluctuated within a range of –200 RMB/ton to 200 RMB/ton, with some periods seeing price parity or inversion. East China and Shandong, as the two major production and consumption regions in China, have experienced different expansion paces for upstream and downstream capacities in recent years, leading to increasingly fierce competition and thus limited overall arbitrage opportunities.

Additionally, as shown in Figure 2, the South China–East China spread narrowed in 2023–2024, then widened again in 2025–2026. The main reason is that since 2022, the supply pattern in South China has changed: local capacity increased, competition intensified, and external sources entered the South China market, compressing the spread. The subsequent widening in 2025–2026 was largely due to new capacity being mainly concentrated in Northeast, East China, and North China. As Shandong and East China are the primary consumption areas, increased supply from these producers made competition even more intense, which was also a key factor driving the spread higher.

III. Primary Reason for Regional Spread Fluctuations: Different Regional Supply Growth Rates Lead to Different Supply-Demand Dynamics

From 2022 to 2026, new MMA capacity was distributed across multiple regions, including Northeast China, Shandong, East China, South China, and Southwest China. East China maintained the largest MMA capacity, reaching 1.05 million tons by June 2026, accounting for 35.53% of total capacity. Shandong followed with 835,000 tons, or 28.26%. Together, East China and Shandong accounted for 63.79% of total capacity. The remaining capacity was distributed in Northeast, Southwest, and South China.

IV. Summary

(1) Different regional supply growth rates have led to varying changes in regional supply-demand dynamics. Consequently, regional flow patterns have changed, resulting in shifts in prices and price spreads.

(2) At different points in time, production schedules and price adjustment rhythms among plants in various regions differ.

(3) The pricing models and characteristics of each region have changed, making it difficult to identify consistent patterns in price spreads.