Lead: As of August 26, the reference price of bisphenol A in East China stood at 9,350 yuan/ton, generally in a high-level consolidation phase following its uptrend. Current market support derives from tight spot supply and elevated feedstock costs, yet upward resistance is equally pronounced, constrained mainly by weak downstream buying interest and lackluster follow-through demand. The supply-demand tug-of-war has reached a stalemate, with the market moving sideways amid a wait-and-see stance.
High costs compounded by deep industry losses provide strong bottom-line support for the bisphenol A market
As of August 26, China's theoretical bisphenol A profit had fallen to a loss of 1,343 yuan/ton, down 55.62% from July 30. During the month, the phenol market remained broadly firm, underpinned by tight supply and strengthening costs, prompting sellers to hold onto inventories. In the acetone market, prices were pushed up considerably amid persistently tight supply. With strong cost pass-through, cost support for bisphenol A strengthened markedly, and industry-wide losses forced prices upward, driving the market price to rise accordingly.
Downstream staged restocking at low levels relieves social inventory pressure
The earlier sustained climb in feedstock prices stimulated downstream polycarbonate (PC) and epoxy resin players to enter the market for concentrated restocking at low levels, easing inventory pressure for bisphenol A producers and narrowing the supply-demand gap. However, as restocking drew to a close, acceptance of high-priced feedstocks waned. Most downstream enterprises have since maintained only routine procurement, with highly cautious attitudes toward chasing higher prices. Overall market trading sentiment has been subdued, and without demand support, the upside momentum for bisphenol A prices has weakened recently.
Near-term outlook
In the short term, the high-level stalemate in bisphenol A prices is likely to persist. Although costs have begun to decline, industry losses remain substantial, and producers' inventory pressure is limited, providing near-term support to market sentiment. However, the medium-term variable lies in the pace of supply recovery. As buying continues to taper off, spot supply is likely to increase gradually, raising the probability of a price pullback from current highs.
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