Lead-in: Driven by significant increases in crude oil and pure benzene prices, cost support for aniline has strengthened markedly. Profit margins have narrowed considerably, with profits shifting upstream along the industry chain. Consequently, the aniline market has actively followed raw material price hikes.
The pure benzene market is primarily driven by geopolitical conflicts and clear cost-side pressures. However, negative feedback from downstream sectors remains limited. Rigid demand and contract customers are chasing price increases to procure inventory, leading to destocking at ports and a shortage of tradable spot goods. As a result, spot prices have surged rapidly. In contrast, forward-month contracts show weak momentum in following these increases. Downstream enterprises, prioritizing continuity of current production, are forced to accept high spot prices and maintain rigid procurement, creating strong support on the spot side. Nevertheless, market confidence in the sustainability of these high prices is generally low—geopolitical premiums could be reversed at any time due to progress in peace talks, previously shut-down units will eventually restart, and import arrivals will recover, making it difficult to sustain the tight supply situation in the long term. Therefore, downstream players are cautious regarding forward months and unwilling to lock in costs at high levels, causing forward prices to lag significantly.
In the previous period, aniline producers enjoyed healthy profit margins. As prices softened, downstream purchasing enthusiasm waned, prompting sellers to offer discounts to facilitate sales. However, downstream buyers remained cautious and wait-and-see during the downturn, with no improvement in market sentiment. Mid-week, the raw material pure benzene strengthened alongside crude oil, and Sinopec’s posted prices were raised multiple times. By the end of the period, Sinopec’s main posted price for pure benzene had risen to 9,900 yuan/ton, providing strong boost to market confidence. With repeated increases in pure benzene prices, the spread between aniline and benzene continued to narrow, significantly compressing aniline profitability and shifting market sentiment. Overall, with enhanced cost support and compressed profits, the aniline market is expected to rise in the next period.
Regarding the pace of price transmission along the industry chain, the earlier price cuts and concessions by aniline producers helped transmit profits downstream. However, as pure benzene prices surged and aniline followed suit, downstream profit margins contracted. During this period, downstream replenishment remained steady, and market demand maintained positive expectations.
Table 1: Aniline Industry Chain Price Comparison (Unit: Yuan/ton)
| Product | Region/Category | Current Period Average | Previous Period Average | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pure Benzene | East China | 9920 | 8955 | 965 | 10.78% | Yuan/ton |
| Shandong | 9686 | 8651 | 1035 | 11.96% | Yuan/ton | |
| Hydrogenated Benzene | East China | 9850 | 8750 | 1100 | 12.57% | Yuan/ton |
| Aniline | East China | 13270 | 13720 | -450 | -3.28% | Yuan/ton |
| Shandong | 13200 | 13600 | -400 | -2.94% | Yuan/ton | |
| Polymeric MDI | 44V20/M20S/5005 | 17100 | 17000 | 100 | 0.59% | Yuan/ton |
| Accelerator | M | 21000 | 21000 | 0 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton |
| CZ | 25800 | 25800 | 0 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | |
| Antioxidant | 4020 | 21300 | 21000 | 300 | 1.43% | Yuan/ton |
| RD | 18000 | 18000 | 0 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton |
Following the earlier price cuts and concessions, aniline market shipping sentiment was relatively quiet. However, the rapid strengthening of pure benzene prices, combined with most major downstream plants maintaining normal operating loads, has led to steady release of domestic rigid demand. Coupled with continuous pickup of export orders, this has driven a rebound and recovery in the aniline market.
Table 2: Domestic Aniline Plant Maintenance Schedule
| Factory | Capacity | Reason for Maintenance | Start Date | End Date | Days | Loss Volume This Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yantai Wanhua | 36 | Planned Maintenance | 2026/9/6 | 2026/9/26 | 20 | 0.54 |
On the supply side, previously maintained units at Nanhua, Dongying Caijin, and Jiangsu Yangnong have restarted, and northern plants that had reduced loads have returned to normal operations. The resulting increase in spot supply led aniline factories to offer slight concessions to downstream buyers. However, as pure benzene prices rose sharply, bullish market sentiment intensified. Exporters actively entered the market to sign contracts, pushing sellers to destock again, and aniline spot supply shifted back to a tight pattern.
Looking ahead to the next period, aniline plant operations are expected to remain generally stable, with no significant changes in supply, meaning the market lacks supply-side drivers. Demand performance is average, with downstream buyers and exporters mostly adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach, focusing on rigid demand procurement. Cost support has strengthened significantly, leaving limited room for manufacturers to offer further concessions, while their willingness to raise prices has increased noticeably. Overall, domestic aniline prices are expected to consolidate in the range of 13,100–13,600 yuan/ton in the next period.
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