Introduction
The vinyl acetate market in June unfolded in three distinct phases, exhibiting an overall pattern of initial stabilization with minor recovery, followed by a period of stability in mid-month, and then renewed downward pressure from mid-to-late month through to the end.

At the beginning of the month, the market pricing system was chaotic. Low-priced spot goods continued to attract downstream restocking for immediate needs. Producers' inventories declined, marginal pressure eased, and price-supportive operations increased. Spot prices gradually stopped falling and stabilized, with the transaction focus in some local markets moving slightly higher. Traders scaled back low-priced selling, and the market shifted from active dumping to low-level bargaining, gradually establishing a bottom price support. In the early-to-mid month, Guangxi Huayi's new capacity was successfully commissioned, but as no external sales were made, the impact on the market was limited in the short term. After VAM experienced a deep decline in May, spot prices approached the cost line of some producers. Producers became clearly reluctant to sell at low prices. On the supply side, calcium carbide process units proactively reduced operating rates, and previously restarted units after maintenance continued to operate at low loads. The availability of low-priced spot supply correspondingly shrank.

Demand provided interim support: the EVA industry's operating rate steadily recovered, increasing demand for VAM. VAE emulsion and polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) maintained stable essential demand, with limited disruption to the VAM market. Amid expectations of multiple major VAM unit turnarounds, downstream phased restocking demand, coupled with the correction momentum from previous overselling, led some producers to opportunistically raise their offering prices, restoring some confidence in market trading.

In the mid-to-late month, Guangxi Huayi began external sales of its product. Concurrently, the reduction in supply from the turnaround of certain major units within the industry partially offset the new capacity release, preventing a further buildup of spot supply pressure. Mainstream VAM offer prices remained stable. As new capacity continued to be released, spot supply increased notably. No significant new demand emerged from downstream sectors. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the transaction focus in some local VAM markets showed a narrow downward trend.

Towards the end of the month, multiple VAM units on the supply side entered scheduled turnaround periods. However, the continuous stable production from Guangxi Huayi's new unit kept the existing market inventory ample. Several downstream EVA companies had already confirmed upcoming concentrated turnaround plans, simultaneously fermenting bearish demand-side factors. The supply reduction benefit from VAM unit turnarounds was offset by the downstream EVA concentrated turnarounds, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the loose supply-demand balance. Bearish sentiment persisted in the market. Spot prices continued to fluctuate within a range without a clear directional driver.

From late June to July, significant fluctuations are expected on the VAM supply side. The turnaround plans for Celanese and Shenghong Refining & Chemical have been implemented. The turnaround progress at Inner Mongolia Shuangxin and Great Wall Energy & Chemical needs further tracking. Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangxi Huayi units are about to ramp up to full capacity operation. Monthly spot supply is expected to decrease. The specific turnaround details are as follows:

| Producer | Turnaround Unit | Capacity (kt) | Start Date | End Date | Duration (Days) | Output Loss (kt) | Reason |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Celanese | Ethylene Process | 300 | 2026/06/30 | 2026/07/19 | 20 | 16.4 | Planned Turnaround |
| Shenghong Refining & Chemical | Ethylene Process | 300 | 2026/06/30 | 2026/08/13 | 45 | 36.9 | Planned Turnaround |
| Inner Mongolia Shuangxin | Calcium Carbide Process | 270 | 2026/07 | TBD | - | - | Planned Turnaround |
| Great Wall Energy & Chemical | Calcium Carbide Process | 450 | 2026/07/30 | TBD | - | - | Planned Turnaround |

For the core downstream EVA industry, concentrated supply-side turnarounds are underway, which will continue to lower the industry operating rate, directly suppressing VAM demand. Specific EVA unit dynamics are as follows: Yangzi Petrochemical's 100-kt unit has not yet restarted. Sinochem Quanzhou's 100-kt unit has been on a two-month long turnaround since June 7. Hongjing PV2 line (200 kt) was shut down on the 24th for heat circulation. PV1 line (200 kt) and PV3 line (200 kt) are both scheduled for shutdown by the end of the month, with an initial plan for a 45-day turnaround. Ningxia Baofeng's 250-kt unit plans a 10-day turnaround from July 5th to 15th. Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase 1's 300-kt unit is scheduled for shutdown in mid-July, expected to last 15 days. These EVA turnarounds cover key production areas in East China, South China, and Northwest China, resulting in a significant contraction in overall EVA output and a corresponding weakening of VAM procurement demand. Even the supply reduction benefit from VAM's own turnarounds will be offset by the demand contraction caused by downstream EVA concentrated shutdowns. The loose supply-demand balance in the market is unlikely to improve substantially, and the market lacks sustained upward momentum.

| Producer | Turnaround Unit | Capacity (kt) | Start Date | End Date | Duration (Days) | Reason |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Yangzi Petrochemical | EVA Unit | 100 | 2026/04/24 | TBD | | Planned Turnaround |
| Sinochem Quanzhou | EVA Unit | 100 | 2026/06/07 | 2026/08/06 | 60 | Planned Turnaround |
| Hongjing PV1 | EVA Unit | 200 | 2026/06/24 | TBD | | Planned Turnaround |
| Hongjing PV2 | EVA Unit | 200 | 2026/06/27 | TBD | | Planned Turnaround |
| Hongjing PV3 | EVA Unit | 200 | 2026/06/30 | TBD | | Planned Turnaround |
| Ningxia Baofeng | EVA Unit | 250 | 2026/07/05 | 2026/07/15 | 10 | Planned Turnaround |
| Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase 1 | EVA Unit | 300 | 2026/07/15 | 2026/07/31 | 15 | Planned Turnaround |

Looking at other downstream sectors, polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) and VAE emulsion maintained only routine essential procurement. Traditional adhesives and textile sizing markets are in their summer off-season, with no bulk restocking or new orders. Although low-priced selling by traders has decreased, holders still face delivery pressure. Market participants remain bearish and cautious, with only sporadic low-level transactions and little willingness for large-scale stockpiling.

Looking ahead to July, the VAM market is expected to maintain an overall pattern of two-way hedging between supply and demand. The market will primarily fluctuate weakly within a range, with limited potential for staged minor corrections and no trend-like upward movement. On the supply side, multiple VAM units are concentrated in turnaround cycles in July, leading to expectations of reduced monthly output. However, Guangxi Huayi and Zhejiang Petrochemical units continue to supply product stably, replenishing market circulation. Overall industry spot inventory remains high. The supply-tightening benefit from turnarounds will be significantly diluted by continuous new capacity release, making it difficult to form a genuine supply gap. Cost-side support remains weak. Demand-side bearish factors are materializing in a concentrated manner. The core downstream EVA industry's clustered turnarounds suppress essential demand. In early July, subdued trading is expected due to low loads across EVA units, with the price focus likely to move slightly lower. In mid-July, the restart of Ningxia Baofeng's short-term turnaround unit, coupled with inventory buildup expectations before the restart of some VAM turnaround units, may trigger a minor correction in the market. However, long-term EVA turnarounds at Sinochem Quanzhou and Hongjing remain in effect, providing no sustained incremental demand. The rebound will be limited, and the market will likely return to oscillation after the correction. In late July, the hot summer off-season continues, and continuous new capacity sales will weigh on the market. Without significant raw material price increases or export volume boosts, prices will face renewed downward pressure.

In summary, the core loose supply-demand balance in the VAM market in July cannot be reversed. The overall price operating range will narrow, with limited room for movement in either direction. A market turning point will likely only emerge after the concentrated restart of long-term EVA turnaround units and the concentrated release of peak-season demand from the photovoltaic downstream sector.