1. Supply Pressure Eases, Near-Term Supply-Demand Contradiction Mitigated

Regional Ethanol Operating Rate Changes

| Region | Current Period | Previous Period | Change |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Northeast | 62.27% | 71.81% | -9.54% |
| North China | 40.06% | 40.06% | 0.00% |
| East China | 46.78% | 45.04% | 1.75% |
| South China | 38.30% | 44.91% | -6.61% |
| Central China | 23.90% | 25.74% | -1.84% |
| Northwest | 44.00% | 53.15% | -9.15% |
| Southwest | 44.20% | 44.20% | 0.00% |
| Total | 46.35% | 50.68% | -4.33% |

During the current period, market supply declined. Hongzhan Bayan and Laha had one production line shut down; Wanli operated normally; COFCO Zhaodong produced fuel ethanol; Zhongke Gelin remained stable; Shenglong ran on a small line. Jilin Fukang operated lines 3 and 4, with line 2 shut down, Jilin Xin Tianlong was shut down, and Dongfeng Hualiang was shut down. Zhalantun was shut down. SDIC Tieling operated normally; SDIC Hailun and Jidong were shut down. Jilin's large ethanol unit was in production. In Henan Mengzhou, two units were stable, Houyuan had a short shutdown, and Xinxiang was shut down. Sichuan Hongzhan was in production. Anhui COFCO had one line shut down in Bengbu, Suzhou was shut down, and Shandong Qüfeng was in production. Guangxi COFCO was shut down. Coal-based ethanol supply remained stable. A Shandong plant was shut down. Shaanxi Yushen Energy and Chemical was shut down; Xinghua Chemical maintained a 30% load; Yulin Kaiyue operated steadily. Anhui plant was in production. Guangdong plant was operating normally; Yulin Kaiyue unit was normal. Henan Anyang operated steadily; Henan Yongcheng was normal. Jingmen Yuanhan unit was in production. Hunan plant was in production. Xinjiang Tianye unit was in production. Downstream chemical ethyl acetate: Yankuang unit failed to restart, Zhuhai Qianxin unit was shut down, while other chemical sectors procured on a rigid demand basis. Baijiu demand declined. Overall downstream demand remained weak.

2. Off-Season Sentiment Pervades; Downstream Terminals Still Provide Bearish Support

China's weekly capacity utilization rate for dimethyl carbonate (DMC)/ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC) stood at 23%, stable week-on-week. Units in the field continued to remain shut down, resulting in minimal change in capacity utilization. Downstream demand was primarily contract-based; the domestic DMC/EMC market reaction was average, with new contracts being executed. It is expected that the weekly capacity utilization rate for DMC/EMC in China will fluctuate within a narrow range in the next period.

Key Downstream Capacity Utilization Rates

| Product | Current Period | Previous Period | Change | Trend for Next Period |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Ethanol | 46.35% | 50.68% | -4.33 ppt | ↓ |
| Ethyl Acetate | 41.47% | 44.47% | -3.00 ppt | ↓ |
| Dimethyl Carbonate / Ethyl Methyl Carbonate | 23.00% | 23.00% | Flat | → |

3. Cost Pressure Eases; Bearish Sentiment Persists

The national weekly average price of corn was 2,362 RMB/ton, down 6 RMB/ton from the previous week. By region, the Northeast market adjusted narrowly and weakly this week, with market demand still light. Northeast feed enterprises mainly used aged rice and brown rice mixtures. In North China, corn prices fell first and then rose this week. Early in the week, traders were still relatively willing to sell before the wheat harvest. As Shandong and Hebei entered the harvesting period, traders' corn trading activities weakened, leading to a stabilization and rebound in corn prices. In the selling areas this week, periodic rigid restocking led to localized slight price increases. Downstream feed enterprises replenished sporadically, mainly procuring at lower prices, making it difficult to achieve significant transaction volumes.

This week, Thai cassava chip prices rose. Currently, the FOB offer for Thai cassava chips is $270/ton. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated slightly at 6.7768.

It is expected that ethanol supply will continue to decline in the next period. On-site bio-fermentation fuel ethanol supply will decrease. The Northeast region is entering a maintenance season. End-user demand continues to decline, and weak off-season demand will continue to impact ethanol transaction prices.