Introduction: From January to May 2026, China's total phenol exports reached 55,300 metric tons, an increase of 38,300 metric tons compared to the same period in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 225.29%. The main reason for this fluctuation is that phenol-acetone plants in the nearby region underwent planned maintenance and rate reduction operations, leading to a decrease in local phenol supply and requiring import replenishment. As a major phenol producer, China actively negotiated with these regions, reaching export deals.

Table 1: Comparison of Phenol Export Volumes from January to May 2026 (Unit: 10,000 metric tons)

| Item | Cumulative Jan-May 2026 | Cumulative Jan-May 2025 | Cumulative YoY Change | May 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2025 | MoM Change | YoY Change |
|------|------------------------|------------------------|-----------------------|----------|----------|----------|------------|------------|
| Export| 5.53 | 1.70 | 225.29% | 2.55 | 0.61 | 0.42 | 318.03% | 507.14% |

Data source: chempricehub

Exploring China's Main Phenol Export Destinations

From 2021 to 2025, the fluctuation pattern of China's phenol export volumes was not consistent. In 2021, under the influence of extreme cold weather in Europe and America, Indian phenol was diverted to the European and American markets, causing a shortage of local phenol supply. China seized the opportunity and exported large quantities of phenol to India, reaching a historical high for exports that year. As the incidental factors subsided, phenol exports returned to normal thereafter. In 2024, due to economic factors, South Korean phenol-acetone plants reduced production, and China's phenol exports to South Korea surpassed those to India.

| Figure 1: Comparison of China's Phenol Export Destinations from 2021 to 2025 (10,000 metric tons) | Figure 2: Share of China's Phenol Export Destinations in 2026 |
|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------|
| (Image content omitted) | (Image content omitted) |
| Data source: chempricehub | Data source: chempricehub |

From January to May 2026, 83% of China's phenol exports went to South Korea, the Taiwan region of China, and India. Among them, South Korea had the highest share at 39%; followed by the Taiwan region at 23%; and India ranked third with 21%.

1. South Korea: Raw Material Shortage Widens Phenol Supply Gap, Driving Sino-Korean Trade Negotiations

From January to May 2026, China's total phenol exports to South Korea amounted to 21,500 metric tons, ranking first among export destinations. Analysis shows that local phenol-acetone plants reduced production due to raw material shortages, leading to a decrease in phenol supply and requiring imports to fill the gap.

In 2024, amid prolonged losses in the global phenol-acetone industry, South Korean local phenol-acetone plants experienced extended shutdowns and rate reductions, shifting China's role from a major import source to a major export destination. The supply chain crisis in the first half of 2026 intensified this trend.

2. Taiwan Region of China: Supply Shrinks During Phenol-Acetone Plant Maintenance, Requiring Import Supplement

From January to May 2026, China's total phenol exports to the Taiwan region reached 12,800 metric tons, ranking second among export destinations. Analysis indicates that phenol-acetone plants in the Taiwan region underwent shutdowns, primarily due to tightened upstream raw material supply and poor product margins, which weakened local phenol supply capacity. As the nearest and most stable large-scale phenol supplier, China naturally became the preferred source to fill this gap.

3. India: Dual Benefits from Zero-Tariff Window Period and Local Plant Shutdowns

From January to May 2026, China's total phenol exports to India amounted to 11,700 metric tons, ranking third among export destinations. Analysis shows that on April 2, 2026, in response to supply chain disruptions caused by the Western Asia conflict, the Indian government temporarily lifted import tariffs on dozens of key petrochemical products, including phenol, effective until June 30, 2026. The zero-tariff policy directly reduced procurement costs for Indian importers, making Chinese phenol more price-competitive. Additionally, India's Deepak phenol-acetone plant shut down in early April due to raw material shortages, further reducing local phenol supply.

Historical data on export destinations shows that India has long been a major export destination for Chinese phenol, with a foundation for long-term cooperation. Moreover, China holds the largest share of global phenol capacity, with relatively stable supply less affected by geopolitical fluctuations in China. During this phased policy window of tariff exemptions, opportunities for negotiation and cooperation can be better advanced.

Forecast of Trends in China's Phenol Export Volume and Destinations for the Second Half of the Year

Based on the operational dynamics of phenol-acetone plants in the nearby region during the first half of the year, it is evident that the increase in phenol imports was mainly driven by raw material tightening, plant maintenance shutdowns, and economic factors. In the second half of the year, the raw material shortage is expected to improve, with phenol-acetone plant production stability anticipated to increase compared to the first half, reducing the likelihood of unplanned shutdowns. Consequently, the supply gap and import demand are expected to decrease. This will impact China's phenol export volume. However, economic factors, particularly changes in phenol-acetone industry profit margins, will still need to be monitored. Therefore, export operations in the second half of the year are expected to be sporadic, with total export volumes likely to decline compared to the first half of the year and possibly even decrease year-on-year.