In August, domestic liquid ammonia gradually stabilized and bottomed out, while in September, the price of ammonia continued to fluctuate upwards. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Sheets, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong increased by 9.81% in September. The main reason is that under the background of stable downstream demand, there was an excess of maintenance in northern regions leading to a decrease in operational rates, thus relieving supply pressure. Currently, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is between 2750-2900 RMB/ton. With the dense maintenance of units, the supply is tight. The supply side shows that the main problem is the lack of supply. In September, ammonia plants generally reduced their production, with operations in the main producing areas of the north decreasing. The increase in maintenance units since September and temporary shutdowns by ammonia enterprises affected some production. This mainly occurred in Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, and the two lake regions. Notably, the first week saw a significant rise, with factories collectively increasing the factory price by more than 300 RMB/ton. However, as supply resumed, the price of ammonia fell back, and the market returned to an upward trend in the second half of the month, with prices continuing to rise until the end of the month. Currently, the market is essentially balanced on supply and demand. The overall improvement in the industrial chain "Golden September" is not strong enough. Downstream demand is lacking luster From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industrial chain, there has been no significant improvement in the environment upstream and downstream of the industry. The natural gas upstream has not continued its rise in August, and by the end of September, it had fallen by 6.41%. Especially in downstream areas, demand remains generally cold, with a predominance of declines over increases, which mainly manifests in slowdowns in downstream demand initiation, a weak "Golden September," especially in major industrial demand areas where terminal operation showed a downward trend. The market relies heavily on agricultural fertilizer demand for stimulation, but fertilizer production has not increased as much as expected, and demand is primarily urgent, restricting the rise in ammonia prices. This round of increase was mainly driven by supply. Especially, the downturn in downstream urea performance is evident. According to Business Sheets, urea fell by 0.74% in September. On one hand, there is ample supply, with domestic urea manufacturers having insufficient conversion to ammonia and high inventory levels. Coupled with weak exports. On the other hand, downstream purchases have not shown significant increase, making the market seem calm. Looking ahead: Analysts from Business Sheets believe that from the supply side, market supply pressure is not significant, unit operation is normal, and inventory continues to reduce. Enterprises have certain sentiments to support prices, but affected by the poor improvement in downstream demand, there is little upward momentum for urea, and there is insufficient motivation to convert to urea, leaving liquid ammonia output still rigid. Overall, it is difficult for a wide-scale situation of oversupply in the market to appear in the short term. From the demand side, the peak season for autumn preparation is weak, but the market remains cool, with agricultural demand remaining stable but increasing slowly. In terms of industrial demand, the continuous decline in the operating rate of downstream propylene acetate may also hinder the liquid ammonia. It's unlikely there will be expectations for a "silver October" peak season. Taking all this into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia will tend towards narrow adjustments with supply and demand basically balanced, with the possibility of significant fluctuations being minimal, focusing mainly on oscillations.