This week (September 23-27), domestic ammonia prices continued their upward trend from last week, according to the commodity market analysis system of the business society. The price increase in Shandong region was 0.71%. The main reason is that under the stable demand for downstream, the maintenance of units in the northern regions and some shutdowns led to a reduction in supply pressure. Currently, the mainstream price of ammonia in Shandong region is between 2750-2880 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is not significant, with the operation of main production areas in the north decreasing. Since September, there has been an increase in maintenance units and temporary shutdowns of ammonia enterprises, affecting part of the output. This mainly manifests in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, and the Huanghe area. As the weekend approaches, some manufacturers have tentatively increased the factory price, with increases ranging from 50 to 100 yuan/ton. The market shows a balance between supply and demand. From the perspective of the ammonia industry chain, the downstream environment slightly improved, while upstream natural gas remained subdued, with prices slightly falling this week, a decrease of 0.21%. Additionally, the downstream fields generally warmed up, which is mainly reflected in strong demand for downstream rigidity and slight warming of agricultural demand; on the other hand, industrial demand remained fundamental. The main downstream products are urea (0.19%) and DMF (0.98%). Urea prices rebound slightly downstream related products. Urea market rebounded this week, with prices slightly increasing, according to the commodity market analysis system of the business society. In China, the domestic urea price rose by 0.19%. By Friday this week, the mainstream price for small and medium particle urea in Shandong was about 2150 yuan/ton. The rise in urea prices was limited mainly due to the delayed agricultural demand and the weak autumn purchasing season for compound fertilizers, leading to market general wait-and-see attitudes. The shipments of urea factories increased slightly but inventory pressure was relieved slightly. The current short-term supply and demand situation may maintain a basic balance, with prices continuing to consolidate. Forecast: According to analysts at the business society, on the supply side, there is little market supply pressure, normal operation of units, and continuous depletion of inventory. Enterprises have certain price support mentality, but influenced by the lack of sustained growth in downstream demand, urea lacks the momentum for sustained price increases, and the drive for converting to urea is insufficient, resulting in a rigid production of ammonia. Overall, it is difficult for a large-scale market supply surplus to occur in the short term. On the demand side, the peak season for preparing fertilizers did not show signs of being robust, and the market remains cool, with agricultural demand maintaining reasonable stability, making demand release weak and slowing down mild growth. On the industrial demand side, the continuous decline in the operating rate of propylene acetone might limit the impact on ammonia production. The "Golden September" peak season may not be realized easily. Taking all factors into consideration, the recent supply and demand situation of ammonia is mainly stable, expecting that the market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations in the short term, with no further significant increase in prices.