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Business Sheets: This week, liquid ammonia continued to rise, and in the later period, it may be weak in rising trend.
Published on 2025-12-26

This week (September 22-28), domestic liquid ammonia prices continued to rise. According to the commodity market analysis system from the Business Shelf, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has increased by 1.16% this week. The main reason is that under stable downstream demand, local production increases have been slow, and supply pressure has slightly eased. Currently, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is between 2250-2400 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, this week's supply was kept at a reasonable balance, with some units undergoing maintenance beforehand, and production in Shandong, Henan, and Northwest areas slightly reduced. Some enterprises resumed operations this week, but overall increase was slow, and the market supply pressure was not significant. From the beginning of the week to midweek, some enterprises adjusted their prices, with the price adjustment range of major companies in Shandong generally within the 100 yuan range, showing a basic balance in supply and demand. However, on weekends, the supply volume slowly increased, leading to a phenomenon of inventory accumulation in enterprises. Some enterprises in Shandong reported slight price reductions, within 50 yuan, due to the market showing signs of imbalance. Enterprises still expect to resume operations later, and future supply may continue to increase. On the demand side, downstream demand has been subdued, with the start-up rate of compound fertilizers remaining low, but recent shipments of urea have increased, with prices slightly rebounding midweek but generally cooling off towards the weekend. Prices fell back to the level of the beginning of the week because of continuous lack of demand later, according to the commodity analysis system. Additionally, domestic industrial needs are weak, and agricultural needs are mostly purchased on demand, with sporadic restocking as the main factor. There is little improvement in demand, and market wait-and-see attitudes still prevail. Market forecast: Business Shelf analysts believe that liquid ammonia's continued upward trend this week is mainly due to the favorable supply conditions continuing, with some units expected to resume operations soon after recent maintenance. As we approach the weekend, some enterprises have shown inventory pressure, leading to a slight decline in ammonia prices. Future supply pressure may gradually increase. Additionally, there are few positives in the demand side, suggesting that ammonia prices may still have room for decrease.

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