I. Review of the 2025 Cyclohexanone Market
In 2025, the domestic cyclohexanone market experienced a significant downward pressure due to fluctuations in supply and demand. According to data from the Business Herald's monitoring system, there was a clear downward trend in cyclohexanone prices in Shandong region from the beginning of the year. At the beginning of the year, the price of cyclohexanone was relatively high, around 8800 yuan/ton. With changes in market supply and demand, the price gradually fluctuated downwards. In the second quarter, there was a significant decline in cyclohexanone prices, from 8212 yuan/ton on April 1 to 7250 yuan/ton by June 30, a decrease of 11.72%. By the end of the year, it fell back to 6350 yuan/ton, with an annual decline of 27.84%.
II. Analysis of Factors Influencing the 2025 Cyclohexanone Market
(A) Game between Supply and Demand: Surplus of Supply vs Weakness of Demand

1. Supply Side: In 2025, the production capacity of the cyclohexanone industry continued to expand, and with the addition of stable production by companies, the market released more cyclohexanone. The increase in new production capacity did not form effective competitive differentiation but instead exacerbated homogenized supply pressure.
2. Demand Side: In 2025, downstream industries such as chemical fiber and pharmaceuticals mainly purchased in bulk, reducing external procurement needs for projects like hexamethylenediamine, which enhance self-support within the industry chain, leading to obstructed transmission of downstream demand, and the core reason for the downward trend in supply and demand became the price decline.
   (B) Cost Conveyance: Weak Core Materials Leading Price Decline
   Cyclohexanone relies heavily on pure benzene as its core raw material, which experienced a downward trend in price in 2025, especially during periods such as April when prices significantly dropped, weakening the support for cyclohexanone prices from the cost side. Although some short-term rebounds occurred in pure benzene prices, the overall trend remains difficult to change, narrowing the space for cost control and price negotiation by cyclohexanone enterprises, further suppressing market prices.
   III. Outlook for the 2026 Cyclohexanone Market: Market Evolution Amid Multidimensional Variables
   (A) Supply and Demand Pattern: Slower Growth in Capacity, Need for Development
3. Production and Capacity: It is expected that domestic cyclohexanone production will continue to grow in 2026, albeit at a slower pace. Enterprises will focus more on enhancing the efficiency of their capacities. Large enterprises, leveraging their scale and technological advantages, may consolidate their market positions through capacity optimization; small and medium-sized enterprises will face pressures from costs and environmental protection, limiting capacity release. The slight growth in output with adjustments in production capacity reflects a limited potential for overcapacity resolution.
4. Demand Side: In 2025, traditional downstream industries such as chemical fiber and pharmaceuticals showed weak demand growth, while demand for emerging fields like new energy materials has become a highlight. For example, demand for cyclohexanone in lithium batteries and solar cell auxiliary materials could marginally improve in the near term, but it is unlikely to achieve substantial growth in volume. Overall, demand recovery is slow, and the game between supply and demand continues, with pressures still present.
   (B) Import and Export: Intensified Interactions Between Domestic and International Markets
5. Exports: In 2024, China exported 74,300 tons of cyclohexanone, and in January to November 2025, this number increased to 88,400 tons, a 18.9% increase. In 2026, China's cyclohexanone exports are expected to continue to narrowly increase. Global demand for chemicals is divided, and developing countries have potential demand for cyclohexanone due to industrial upgrading. However, affected by trade policies and fluctuations in freight rates, export growth is limited. Meanwhile, domestic enterprises need to compete internationally in price and quality to seek breakthroughs. High-value-added products may become the focus of export efforts.
6. Imports: From 2018 to 2023, China's import volume of cyclohexanone fluctuated due to continuous expansion of domestic facilities. In 2024, China's import volume was only 196 tons, but in 2025, it significantly increased to 535.6 tons, a 173% increase. It is expected that in 2026, the import volume of cyclohexanone will continue to rise. Overseas high-quality capacities may supplement China's high-end demand gap, such as high purity and special specifications of cyclohexanone, challenging domestic enterprises to upgrade technology. The overall import-export pattern will not change China's dominance in the domestic market. However, external shocks will also affect the pace of price fluctuations.
   (C) Price Forecast: Fluctuations Will Be Repaired, Range-Based Bidding
   It is expected that in 2026, the price of cyclohexanone will oscillate around the cost line and changes in supply and demand margins. There is no trend in unilateral market movements. On the cost side, if there is a rebound in the international oil price or fluctuations in refining adjustments, it will support the price of cyclohexanone. On the supply side, if downstream demand recovers unexpectedly (such as increasing in the new energy sector), it may alleviate excess pressure on supply and lead to price repair. However, under the background of oversupply and weak recovery in demand, prices are likely to be in the range of 6000 - 7500 yuan/ton, where sudden factors such as concentrated maintenance of equipment can cause price deviations for a short period but cannot last long.
   IV. Conclusion: Opportunities and Challenges Coexist, Focus on Structural Upgrades
   The cyclic market of cyclohexanone in 2026 is still in an adjustment phase. Enterprises need to focus on technological upgrades (such as green production and high-end product research and development), industrial chain coordination (binding downstream and optimizing raw material procurement), to respond to supply and demand, cost, import and export, etc. Challenges. Although there is no significant real turnaround in prices in the short term, emerging demands and accelerated industry integration can accumulate momentum for long-term healthy development, and quality enterprises are expected to seize opportunities amidst fluctuations, reshaping market structures.