Since late October, domestic liquid ammonia has gradually bottomed out and stabilized, entering November with an upward fluctuation in price. According to the business community's commodity market analysis system, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong increased by 2.70% in November. The main reason is that under the stable downstream demand, there are more maintenances in northern regions leading to lower operating rates, thereby alleviating supply pressure. By the end of the month, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong was between 2600-2800 yuan/ton. Maintenances in northern regions led to tight supply, with ammonia manufacturers generally reducing production in November. The operation rate in the main producing areas of the north decreased. Since November, there has been an increase in maintenances and temporary shutdowns by ammonia enterprises, affecting some production capacity. This mainly occurred in Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, and the two lake areas. Particularly, the first and third weeks saw significant price increases, with manufacturers collectively raising their ex-factory prices, accumulating a total increase of over 300 yuan/ton. However, as supply resumed, ammonia prices adjusted downwards, resulting in a M-shaped market trend. As of the end of the month, the liquid ammonia market was still on the downside but showed signs of stabilization. Currently, the market shows a balance between supply and demand.
The overall improvement in the industrial chain has not significantly improved; both upstream and downstream prices have mixed results. Looking at the upstream and downstream of the liquid ammonia industry chain, there has been no significant improvement in either part. The price of natural gas upstream has seen a significant drop, ending the month at 5.14%. Especially for downstream sectors, which remain generally cold, with prices fluctuating between increases and decreases. This is mainly due to weak downstream demand, with agricultural demand entering its off-season, leading to a significant decline in urea prices, with a monthly drop of 9.74%. Additionally, key industrial demand areas show a downward trend in terminal operations. The resumption of fertilizer production did not meet market expectations, leading to limited market activity due to dual factors. Downstream demand constrained the increase in ammonia prices, driven by supply side factors. Downstream urea performance has been unsatisfactory, with commerce reporting a 9.74% drop in urea prices in November. On one hand, the supply volume is sufficient, but domestic urea manufacturers have not increased their conversion rates, leading to high inventory levels. Coupled with weak export demand. On the other hand, downstream procurement has not significantly increased, keeping the market calm.

Looking ahead: Business Sector analysts believe that from the supply side, with maintenances expected in northern producing regions, supply pressure will gradually ease in the coming period, and the likelihood of stopping falls is greater. Additionally, entering winter, increased rainy and snowy weather in the north may limit short-term supply, potentially causing price differentials due to localized supply and demand imbalances. From the demand side, after the initial replenishment ends, agricultural demand is gradually declining, while industrial demand maintains essential needs, potentially constraining ammonia prices. However, considering that imports are still low, supply and demand will likely remain reasonable until the end of the year. Overall, recent ammonia prices will stabilize, with short-term effects of supply pressure relief possibly allowing prices to rise again. However, due to the weaker seasonal demand expectation in winter, supply and demand competition will intensify, potentially leading to repeated fluctuations in the ammonia market. Additionally, regional price differences due to weather impacts and uneven distribution of supply and demand could lead to differentiated market trends, with varying prices and gains or losses.