In September, the domestic liquid ammonia market experienced significant increases. According to the Commercial Market Analysis System of Business Society, by September 28th, the monthly increase in Shandong's liquid ammonia was 11.11%. Prices in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, and Anhui, among other main producing regions, saw notable increases. The primary reason for this was concentrated shutdowns and maintenance of production facilities leading to a shortage of supply, coupled with low inventory levels at downstream factories causing a surge in demand. Additionally, high prices for coal and natural gas on the cost side also contributed to the uptick in the ammonia market. Currently, the mainstream price for liquid ammonia in Shandong is between 3800-4000 yuan/ton. From the perspective of supply, the overall operating rate of domestic manufacturers has significantly decreased, especially the volume of ammonia released in northern main producing areas which has significantly contracted compared to the previous month. In the beginning of the month, fluctuations in production at northern facilities were evident, with multiple units in Shandong and Hebei undergoing temporary shutdowns, partially recovering towards the middle of the month, which somewhat suppressed prices. However, towards the latter part of the month, the market faced tight supplies due to preparations for the holiday season by downstream factories and rising international supply prices, leading to reduced imports. This resulted in a concentrated push-up trend across various regions nationwide. The cumulative increase in factory prices from the beginning of the month to the end of the month was between 200-400 yuan/ton. The market was in a state of supply shortage. Looking at the upstream and downstream links of the ammonia industry chain, there was an improvement in the upstream costs, with liquefied natural gas experiencing a rise this month. Both coal and natural gas prices have increased significantly, with the price increase in September exceeding 15%. The linkage effect between upstream and downstream was evident. Downstream products also saw more gains than losses. Main downstream products such as ammonium chloride and compound fertilizers like diammonium phosphate all saw varying degrees of price increases. On the demand side, downstream compound fertilizers performed well, with ammonium chloride showing stronger gains. According to the Commercial Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 25th, the market price of agricultural ammonium chloride in East China was 742 yuan/ton, up 2.77% from 722 yuan/ton at the beginning of September. The capacity load of compound fertilizers in the first half of September remained relatively high, providing strong support for ammonium chloride demand. As the peak season for agricultural needs gradually came to an end in late September, the capacity of compound fertilizers slightly decreased, resulting in scattered purchases by downstream buyers. Coupled with the lack of pre-summer storage, the support for ammonium chloride demand weakened towards late September. Future market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that on the cost side, daily prices may remain relatively strong in the near future. With the upcoming winter peak in coal consumption, liquid ammonia in the northern markets may face pressure on the cost side. Under cost pressure, liquid ammonia is likely to be difficult to fall but easy to rise. Regarding the supply side, the short-term tightness in market supply may face relief. Previously shut-down units have plans to resume operations, along with new capacities being launched, expecting a stable increase in market supply. However, foreign sources are still limited by high prices, with limited imports, which will continue to support the domestic ammonia market. But on the demand side, seasonal effects will keep agricultural demand light and dry. The operation rate of compound fertilizers may decrease, which will suppress the price of liquid ammonia. However, from an industrial perspective, downstream demand remains high, indicating that overall demand will not change significantly. Considering these factors, in the context of high costs, there may be further upward movement in domestic liquid ammonia in October. However, considering no substantial changes in supply and demand, the basic equilibrium situation without significant increases or decreases in prices means that liquid ammonia is unlikely to see significant price increases. The market is expected to remain high and consolidated.