Since June and July, the domestic liquid ammonia market has experienced continuous fluctuations downwards. Entering August, the market gradually stabilized and bottomed out. This week (August 12-16), domestic liquid ammonia saw a slight increase. According to the business community's commodity market analysis system, the weekly price increase in Shandong area was 1.51%. The main reason is that under the backdrop of stable downstream demand, there are more maintenance periods in northern regions, some of which led to an alleviation of supply pressure. Currently, the mainstream price for liquid ammonia in Shandong area is between 2300-2600 RMB/ton. With an increase in maintenance periods, supply pressure is relieved. Looking at the supply side, supply pressure has been eased, with a decrease in the operating capacity of main production areas in the north. Since August, there have been increases in maintenance units and temporary shutdowns by ammonia companies, affecting some production. This mainly manifests in Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, and the two lakes regions. As we approach the weekend, some manufacturers tentatively raised their factory prices, with an increase of over 100 RMB/ton. The market shows that supply and demand are basically balanced. From a long-term perspective, the entire industry chain has slightly improved. Looking at the upstream and downstream environments of liquid ammonia, there has been a slight improvement. The upstream natural gas has broken out of the downtrend in July, with this week's price seeing a slight increase of 0.81%. Additionally, the downstream sector generally recovered, mainly due to strong rigid demand in downstream sectors and a slight warming of agricultural demand; industrial demand remains fundamental. The main downstream product, urea (0.35%), also showed a slight recovery. Downstream urea market rebounded slightly. Looking at related products like urea, this week saw a slight rebound in the urea market, with domestic urea prices up by 0.35% according to the business community's commodity market analysis system. By Friday this week, the mainstream price for small and medium particle sizes in Shandong area was around 2300 RMB/ton. The rise in urea prices was very limited, mainly due to delayed agricultural demand that did not exceed expectations and the general postponement of autumn purchasing season for compound fertilizers, leaving the market mostly on guard. Urea factories had limited shipments but slightly alleviated inventory pressure. The short-term supply and demand situation may remain essentially balanced, with prices continuing to consolidate. Forecast: Business Sector analysts believe that from the supply side, the market supply pressure is not significant, with operations being open or closed, reducing the impact. Enterprises tend to maintain a price-supporting mentality, but due to the impact of the rainy season, transportation is somewhat impacted, leading to some short-term supply pressure in some parts of the ammonia plant. Overall, it is difficult for a large-scale market supply surplus to appear in the short term. From the demand side, the autumn preparation season for fertilizers is imminent, expecting a warming expectation in demand. Short-term, it will be favorable for liquid ammonia, with industrial demand being fundamental, and future expansion limited. Considering all these factors, recent liquid ammonia prices will gradually strengthen as supply and demand pressures ease, and in the subsequent supply and demand game, the ammonia market will turn towards a relatively upward adjustment.
Comments
0