ChemPriceHub Alert: Iran's Methanol Production Halt Sparks Supply Tightness Concerns

Iran has halted operations at eight methanol production lines (involving an annual capacity of 13.85 million tons), with loadings expected to decline significantly month-on-month in January. China's methanol imports from Iran in January are projected to drop from 1.35 million tons to 780,000 tons. The high import dependency (over 60%) has heightened expectations of a tightening supply. PriceSeek's analysis of methanol gives a bullish-bearish score of 2. The article highlights that the shutdown of Iran's eight methanol production lines, with an annual capacity of 13.85 million tons, has led to a sharp month-on-month decline in January loadings. China's methanol imports from Iran in January are expected to fall from 1.35 million tons to 780,000 tons. Given China's methanol import dependency exceeding 60%, the significant tightening of supply is a major positive for spot prices and is anticipated to drive up domestic methanol spot prices. Combined with the latest data from Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's methanol futures (such as the closing price of the main contract 2605 at 2,263 yuan/ton and open interest of 830,030 lots), expectations of reduced supply are likely to strengthen bullish sentiment in the market, potentially driving futures prices higher. Changes in open interest indicate active capital flow, with bullish factors dominating the market.