Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has notified that, starting from the settlement on December 30, 2025, the trading margin requirement for cotton, rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, PTA, methanol, polyester staple fiber, para-xylene, and bottle chip futures contracts will be set at 9%, with price fluctuation limits of 8%. Among these, the trading margin requirement for rapeseed meal futures contract 2603 will be 10%. For sugar futures contracts, the trading margin requirement will be 8%, with price fluctuation limits of 7%.

PriceSeek Analysis:
Cotton: Bull-Bear Score: -0.5
The policy raises the margin requirement for cotton futures to 9% and expands price fluctuation limits to 8%, increasing trading costs and curbing speculation. Against the backdrop of the main cotton contract 2605 holding 860,000 open positions and a slight price increase of 40 yuan/ton, short-term bullish momentum may weaken. However, medium- to long-term supply and demand fundamentals remain unchanged, limiting the impact on spot prices. Futures prices may face slight downward pressure with limited fluctuations.

Rapeseed Meal: Bull-Bear Score: -1
The margin requirement for rapeseed meal contract 2603 is raised to 10%, higher than the 9% for other contracts, indicating targeted liquidity tightening. With this contract holding 29,000 open positions and a price decline of 5 yuan/ton, the new rules are likely to amplify selling pressure, negatively impacting short-term futures prices. The spot market may also face downward pressure.

PTA: Bull-Bear Score: -0.5
The uniform increase in margin requirement to 9% raises the trading threshold. Despite the main PTA contract 2605 holding 1.3 million open positions, prices fell by 8 yuan/ton. The policy may suppress speculative buying, leading to short-term weakness in futures prices. However, it has no substantial impact on spot supply and demand.

Bottle Chips: Bull-Bear Score: -0.5
The margin requirement increase to 9% may reduce trading activity in bottle chip futures. With the main contract 2603 holding 37,000 open positions and prices falling by 8 yuan/ton, short-term futures prices are under pressure. Spot prices are expected to remain relatively stable due to cost support.

Rapeseed Oil: Bull-Bear Score: -0.5
The margin requirement for rapeseed oil is raised to 9%. Considering the main soybean oil contract 2605 holding 600,000 open positions and a price increase of 16 yuan/ton, the policy may curb speculation in the oil sector, reducing short-term futures price volatility. Spot prices are less affected, as they are primarily driven by supply and demand.

Polyester Staple Fiber: Bull-Bear Score: -0.5
The margin requirement for polyester staple fiber is raised to 9%. With the main contract 2609 holding only 81 open positions and prices falling by 36 yuan/ton, the new rules are likely to reduce participation in low-liquidity contracts, leading to short-term bearish pressure on futures prices. The spot market is expected to remain stable due to balanced supply and demand.

Methanol: Bull-Bear Score: -0.5
The margin requirement for methanol futures is raised to 9%. Although no specific data is provided, the policy generally increases trading costs, potentially curbing short-term speculative activity. Futures price fluctuations may narrow, while spot prices remain largely driven by fundamentals.

Para-Xylene: Bull-Bear Score: -0.5
The margin requirement for para-xylene is raised to 9%, reflecting a policy direction to reduce market leverage. Futures liquidity may weaken, putting short-term price pressure on futures. Spot prices remain neutrally influenced by demand support from the industrial chain.

Sugar: Bull-Bear Score: 0
The margin requirement for sugar is adjusted to 8% (lower than other commodities), with price fluctuation limits of 7%. The relatively relaxed policy has limited impact on the market. Futures and spot prices are primarily determined by supply and demand fundamentals, maintaining a neutral outlook in the short term.