【Lead】As of the end of August 2026, Chempricehub international methanol production (excluding China) totaled 27.8864 million tons, down 5.7809 million tons from 33.6673 million tons in the same period last year, a decline of 17.17%. Supply disruptions in the international methanol market in 2026 were not limited to facilities in the Middle East's Persian Gulf region; methanol units in other regions also experienced planned and unplanned shutdowns and load reductions. Against the backdrop of war, the supply interruption of Middle East cargoes created natural shortages in major Asian consuming regions, and the degree of contraction across multiple major global export supply sources exceeded market expectations.
On the Iran front: in mid-June 2025, the first outbreak of the US–Iran conflict prompted a full-line shutdown to hedge risks, though neither facilities nor public infrastructure sustained any war damage. As the conflict quickly subsided, units were restarted and ramped up to full production and shipping, with inventories shifted to China ahead of the formal winter gas curtailment. This also drove China's monthly imports and port inventories to record highs in the second half of 2025.
At the end of February 2026, the US–Iran war formally broke out. After the Strait of Hormuz was blockaded, shipping came to a complete standstill, resulting in tank-top inventories and massive floating storage. With attacks on Iranian public infrastructure, operating rates of methanol units across the Persian Gulf dropped sharply. Among non-Iranian Middle East units, aside from a few operating at low loads with output absorbed within the Gulf, the vast majority were forced to shut down, pulling non-Iranian Middle East operating rates down to 30–40%.
The conventional logic that production serves as a leading indicator for loading schedules was overturned. Massive floating storage, inventories, and the intermittent start-stop of major Middle East units were all dwarfed by the overriding reality of strait passage accessibility.
Given such conditions in the Middle East, production in other regions was not entirely sound either. Globally, only North America maintained reasonably stable operating rates. In South America, Venezuela underwent maintenance in Q1, Chile conducted routine gas curtailment in Q2, and Titan was shut down in Q3 due to natural gas supply issues. In Russia, a major unit was sidelined for an extended period after a drone attack. In Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Brunei, and New Zealand all carried out major maintenance shutdowns in the first half of the year, while Malaysia experienced unstable operations with unsatisfied operating rates. Collectively, these factors pushed global methanol operating rates to seasonally historical lows in 2026.
Against this overarching backdrop, methanol futures hit the daily limit-up and locked at the ceiling during today's session once again. Mainland auctions continued to push prices higher, while coastal near-month and spot basis strengthened in tandem. As of press time, 748,300 tons of August methanol imports had been discharged from foreign vessels. If there is still no news on the strait in the next two days, September methanol imports are expected to be confirmed at 360,000–400,000 tons (a range is provided as the status of certain vessels still requires confirmation). Methanol is expected to remain strong. Attention should be directed to downstream products' willingness to accept high prices and potential downstream operating rate changes in the event of feedstock supply disruptions.
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