ChemPriceHub Important Notice: Impact of Photovoltaic Cell Export Tax Rebate Adjustment

Official Announcement Translation:
On January 9, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement regarding adjustments to the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic (PV) and related products:

• Effective April 1, 2026, the value-added tax (VAT) export rebate for PV and other specified products will be abolished.
• From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%.
• Effective January 1, 2027, the VAT export rebate for battery products will be abolished.
• For products subject to consumption tax among the above-mentioned items, the export consumption tax policy remains unchanged and will continue to apply the consumption tax rebate (exemption) policy.
• The applicable export rebate rates for products listed in this announcement shall be determined based on the export date indicated on the export customs declaration form.

PriceSeek Analysis
Nickel, Bull-Bear Score: -1.5
The Ministry of Finance’s announcement to abolish the export tax rebate for PV products and reduce the rebate for battery products will significantly diminish the export competitiveness of batteries, thereby reducing demand for nickel (a key material in lithium-ion batteries). This is expected to exert downward pressure on spot prices. The policy will be implemented in phases starting from April 2026, with a clear expectation of reduced demand. However, the transition period partially mitigates the impact, resulting in a score of -1.5 (between moderately bearish and significantly bearish).

Copper, Bull-Bear Score: -1.5
The adjustment to the export tax rebate for PV and battery products will curb the export volume of these products (copper is widely used in PV modules and battery manufacturing), thereby reducing copper demand and exerting a bearish impact on spot prices. The policy implementation timeline provides some buffer, but the trend of declining demand is evident. With a score of -1.5 (moderately to significantly bearish), spot prices are expected to face downward pressure.