April 21st — On April 20th, according to Fertiglobe, one of the world's largest nitrogen fertilizer exporters, nitrogen fertilizer prices have nearly doubled compared to pre-Iran war levels. Moreover, as key supplies remain blocked in the Persian Gulf region, prices may continue to rise.

Chempricehub's analysis of urea: Bullish-Bearish Score: 2.
The article notes that nitrogen fertilizer prices have nearly doubled compared to pre-Iran war levels, and the blockage of key supplies in the Persian Gulf region could lead to further price increases. This directly benefits urea spot prices, as supply shortages will increase demand-side pressure, supporting sustained strength in the spot market.

Combined with urea futures data (e.g., Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange contract 2609 closing at 1,930 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; contract 2701 closing at 1,896 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan), the futures market has shown a slight upward trend. However, the supply disruption risks highlighted in the article reinforce the bullish outlook for the future, potentially driving further gains in futures contracts such as 2609 and 2701.

Scoring rationale: Major positive (+2), as supply blockades have already doubled prices and may continue to climb, providing strong support for both spot and futures markets.