April 23rd Report – According to the Indian Business Standard on April 16, sources indicate that due to an increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, India's urea production is expected to reach approximately 2 million metric tons in April 2026, representing a month-on-month increase of 11.1%. Chempricehub's assessment of urea gives a bullish-bearish score of -1.5.

The report notes that India's urea production is projected to hit 2 million tons in April 2026, up 11.1% month-on-month, driven primarily by an expansion in supply due to increased LNG availability. This supply increase will exert significant downward pressure on urea spot prices, as heightened risks of market oversupply may curb spot price trends. Combined with urea futures data, such as the September 2609 contract settlement price of 2,020 yuan per ton, which recently rose by 36 yuan, this news could reverse market expectations, increasing the risk of a price correction in future contracts and exerting a bearish impact on futures prices. The overall score of -1.5 denotes a moderately significant bearish factor, given that the 11.1% month-on-month growth is substantial. Against a backdrop where demand has not increased correspondingly, this dynamic is likely to trigger a downward price trend.