In December 2025, the Cotton Farmers Branch of the China Cotton Association conducted its first survey on cotton planting intentions for 2026. The results showed that the intended cotton planting area nationwide in 2026 is 44.386 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. Among this, Xinjiang accounts for 40.54 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%.

PriceSeek Analysis on Cotton
Bull-Bear Score: 1.5
The article indicates that the intended cotton planting area nationwide in 2026 has decreased by 1% year-on-year, with a 0.9% decline in Xinjiang, the main production region. This suggests a potential reduction in future cotton supply. The expectation of tighter supply is likely to boost spot cotton prices, as stable or growing demand coupled with supply-demand imbalances will drive prices higher. Combined with cotton futures market data (e.g., the settlement price of the 2605 contract at 14,565 yuan/ton, and changes in open interest indicating active market participation), this news may strengthen bullish sentiment and support an upward trend in futures prices. The score of 1.5 reflects a clear downward trend with a relatively high degree of positive impact, despite the modest decline.

Ginned Cotton
Bull-Bear Score: 1.5
As a processed product of cotton, ginned cotton is directly influenced by cotton supply. The expected reduction in cotton supply due to decreased planting area will drive up spot prices for ginned cotton, as raw material costs rise. The strong correlation between ginned cotton and the cotton market means the article’s information is favorable for the ginned cotton spot market. Combined with cotton futures trends (e.g., data from the 2605 contract), the news of reduced supply may extend to ginned cotton futures, reinforcing bullish expectations. The score of 1.5 reflects a significant positive impact, as supply contraction directly affects downstream products.

Cotton Yarn
Bull-Bear Score: 1.5
Cotton yarn, which uses cotton as its raw material, will see increased costs due to reduced cotton planting area, thereby driving up spot prices for cotton yarn. The article implies supply tightness, which supports production cost increases for cotton yarn. Combined with cotton yarn futures data (e.g., the settlement price of the 2603 contract at 20,605 yuan/ton, with trading volume and open interest indicating high market attention), this news may boost the futures market, as expectations of raw material shortages strengthen bullish momentum. The score of 1.5 reflects clear cost-driven benefits with a strong positive impact, aligning with trends in the cotton market.