In January 2026, the MIBK market experienced a phased recovery, ending the previously sustained downward trend and showing a steady upward movement in prices. According to data monitored by Business Society, the mainstream negotiated price in East China at the beginning of the month was approximately 6,916 RMB/ton. As favorable market factors gradually emerged, the price successfully climbed to the range of 7,200–7,400 RMB/ton by the end of January, with a cumulative increase of 5.06% for the month. Market trading sentiment significantly improved compared to the sluggish state in the fourth quarter of the previous year. This recovery resulted from the combined effects of strong cost-side support, orderly supply-side regulation, rigid demand-side underpinning, and improved market sentiment, collectively establishing the phased upward trend for the month.

Strong cost-side support served as the core driver. The sustained rise in the price of acetone, the core raw material for MIBK production, provided significant support. The correlation between acetone and MIBK is extremely strong, and fluctuations in acetone prices have a notable impact on MIBK production costs. Since January, the acetone market in East China entered an upward trajectory, with prices rising from 4,057 RMB/ton on January 1 to 4,800 RMB/ton on January 26, an increase of 18.3%. Although there was a slight decline in the past two days, prices remained at a relatively high level overall, providing solid cost support for MIBK.

Moderate supply-side regulation alleviated oversupply pressure. On the supply side, the industry adjusted production loads and controlled order delivery schedules to mitigate the persistent oversupply issue. Market monitoring in January showed that domestic MIBK producers operated at a low capacity utilization rate of less than 50%. Some plants proactively reduced their loads, prioritized the delivery of previous orders, and faced no significant sales pressure, maintaining overall moderate inventory levels.

Price adjustments by leading enterprises further boosted market sentiment. On January 28, Anhui Zhonghuifa New Materials, operating a 50,000-ton/year MIBK plant, raised its quotation by 200 RMB/ton to 7,600 RMB/ton due to controllable inventory and stable demand. This move served as an important indicator of the market's upward trend. Additionally, although MIBK production capacity reached 280,000 tons in 2025, indicating a high supply base, no new capacity was added in January. Producers actively controlled their sales pace, making it difficult to alleviate the tight spot supply situation, thereby supporting price increases.

Rigid demand provided a foundation for market stability, and market sentiment improved. Although downstream demand did not experience explosive growth, the steady follow-up demand provided fundamental support for the market. MIBK is primarily used in rubber antioxidants, coatings, and other fields. The demand for antioxidants is closely linked to the automotive and tire industries. In 2024, China's automobile production and sales increased by 2.9% and 3.7% year-on-year, respectively, driving steady growth in antioxidant demand and subsequently generating rigid procurement for MIBK.

In terms of market transactions, downstream enterprises mostly adopted an on-demand procurement strategy, with actual transactions dominated by small orders. The overall market remained "moderate," but there was no resistance to procurement, effectively supporting upstream price increases.

In the short term, the MIBK market is expected to maintain a high-level consolidation trend under the dual influence of cost support and tight supply. If acetone prices remain firm, they will continue to provide cost support for MIBK. With producers facing limited inventory pressure and strong willingness to maintain prices, the mainstream price in East China is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7,200–7,400 RMB/ton.

In the long term, the market still faces pressure from the supply-demand balance. New MIBK production capacity is expected to come online in 2026, potentially increasing supply pressure again. Downstream demand is not expected to improve significantly and will likely remain dominated by rigid procurement. At the same time, the trend of acetone prices remains uncertain. If acetone supply increases and prices decline, cost support for MIBK will weaken. Overall, the MIBK market in 2026 may exhibit a "rise first, then fall" trend. The price increase in January is likely a phased phenomenon, and subsequent developments will require close attention to acetone price fluctuations, the release of new production capacity, and the recovery progress of downstream demand.