Against the backdrop of global optimization of existing potash fertilizer capacity, constraints on incremental capacity, and a persistently tight supply-demand balance, four listed potash fertilizer companies in China have released impressive 2025 performance forecasts, with their net profits attributable to shareholders all achieving substantial year-on-year growth. This fully confirms the industry's high prosperity. Morgan Stanley predicts that the global potash fertilizer market will enter a "longer-term tight" phase, a trend expected to last at least until 2028, providing solid support for the earnings growth of leading companies.

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd. (Salt Lake Co.): Steady Growth of the Leader, Synergistic Development of Dual Core Businesses
As the leader in China's potash fertilizer industry, Salt Lake Co.'s performance leads the sector. The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 8.29 billion to RMB 8.89 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 77.78% to 90.65%. The core logic behind the high growth is the synergistic development of its two main products: potassium chloride and lithium carbonate. During the reporting period, benefiting from the global tight supply-demand balance, the price of potassium chloride products increased year-on-year, forming the fundamental profit base. Although lithium carbonate prices fluctuated significantly throughout the year, they gradually recovered in the second half, effectively offsetting the impact of earlier volatility and driving substantial growth in the company's overall profitability. As a core enterprise in salt lake potash extraction in China, the company leverages the resource advantages of the Qarhan Salt Lake and continues to release economies of scale under industry supply constraints, consolidating its leading position.

Zangge Mining Co., Ltd.: Optimization of Volume, Cost, and Profit Coupled with Diversified Income, Achieving High Growth Against the Trend Despite Capacity Reduction
Against the backdrop of proactively optimizing its capacity structure, Zangge Mining still achieved strong earnings growth. The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.7 billion to RMB 3.95 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 43.41% to 53.10%, with the growth rate of non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders even higher at 51.95% to 61.76%. A previous announcement from the Qinghai Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology showed that the company voluntarily reduced its annual potash fertilizer capacity from 2 million tons to 1.2 million tons, primarily due to resource depletion in the mining area and facility optimization needs. In 2025, the company's actual potassium chloride output was 1.0336 million tons, with sales of 1.0843 million tons, maintaining a high operating rate and demonstrating operational resilience. The drivers of earnings growth come from three dimensions: First, the potassium chloride business achieved both volume and price increases. The tight supply-demand balance drove selling prices higher, while process optimization and management improvements led to a 19.12% year-on-year decrease in sales cost per ton, increasing the gross margin to 63.46%, up 20.78 percentage points year-on-year. Second, substantial investment income was generated. Its investment in Tibet Julong Copper Co., Ltd. benefited from rising copper prices and capacity release, contributing significantly to profits. Third, the "Potassium + Lithium" dual-drive model took shape. The lithium carbonate business resumed production rapidly, and price recovery in the fourth quarter offset the impact of earlier production halts. This diversified layout hedges against single-product cycle risks.

Dongfang Tower Co., Ltd.: Potash Fertilizer Becomes Core Engine, Achieving Leapfrog Growth in Performance
Leveraging the strong performance of its potash fertilizer business, Dongfang Tower achieved a breakthrough in earnings. The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.08 billion to RMB 1.27 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 91.4% to 125.07%, indicating significantly improved profitability. During the reporting period, the company's steel structure manufacturing segment progressed steadily, while the potash fertilizer business became the core growth engine. In 2025, potassium chloride output was approximately 1.3 million tons, with sales of about 1.23 million tons. Against the backdrop of rising domestic potash fertilizer prices year-on-year, profit margins continued to expand, effectively driving the company's overall earnings growth and forming a synergistic development pattern of "Manufacturing + Resources" dual main businesses.

Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd. (Asia-Potash Int'l): Overseas Capacity Release Leads with Triple Resonance of Volume, Price, and Profit
As a core enterprise of China's "overseas potash warehouse," Asia-Potash Int'l achieved explosive earnings growth by leveraging overseas capacity release. The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.66 billion to RMB 1.97 billion in 2025, a substantial year-on-year increase of 75% to 107%. Its overall gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 58.91%, up 9.79 percentage points year-on-year. The high earnings growth stems from the triple resonance of "volume, price, and profit": On the capacity side, the successful trial operation of the third one-million-ton project at its Laos production base officially ushered the company into the era of 3 million tons of capacity, with annual production and sales volume showing significant year-on-year growth. On the price side, the global potash fertilizer supply-demand tight balance intensified in 2025, with domestic and international potash fertilizer prices rising nearly 30% year-on-year. The average domestic port price for potassium chloride once exceeded RMB 3,450 per ton, and the current port price for 62% white potassium has risen to RMB 3,500 per ton. On the channel side, the "Domestic + International" dual-circulation sales strategy enhanced product premium capability, allowing the company to fully benefit from the industry's high prosperity.

Industry Outlook: Tight Balance Pattern Continues, Spring Plowing Peak Season Adds Further Support
The current global potash fertilizer market is characterized by optimization of existing capacity and constraints on incremental capacity. BHP's Jansen potash project in Canada experienced a 47% cost overrun, putting schedule pressure. The average cost overrun rate for new global projects exceeds 35%, with construction delays commonly exceeding 18 months, continuously strengthening supply-side constraints. Domestically, China's total potassium chloride production in 2025 was 5.82 million tons, down 6% year-on-year. Port inventory stood at 2.51 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons year-on-year. Coupled with the 1.5 million-ton national reserve replenishment demand and the fact that spring plowing accounts for 50% of annual consumption, institutions like Guosen Securities are optimistic about potash fertilizer prices exceeding expectations during the spring plowing period. The industry's high prosperity is expected to continue, benefiting leading companies and those with advanced overseas layouts.