Introduction: Since the start of 2026, the domestic vinyl acetate market has experienced dramatic volatility, characterized by a "strong start followed by weakness and a sharp decline from highs." After peaking in April, prices rapidly fell in May. As of May 20, taking the petrochemical price in the East China market as an example, the mainstream average price dropped to 7,350 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decline of over 30%. The market has shifted from a strong scenario of tight supply and cost support to a weak scenario of ample supply, sluggish demand, and collapsing costs, with short-term downward pressure persisting.

1. Price Trend Review

Entering March, international geopolitical conflicts pushed up prices of crude oil and raw materials such as ethylene and glacial acetic acid. Combined with maintenance shutdowns at major units like Fujian Haiquan, domestic supply tightened, and market prices began to rise significantly. Shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz widened the spot gap in Europe, leading to a surge in Chinese export volumes. This further tightened domestic supply, providing strong support for domestic vinyl acetate. In early April, the petrochemical price in East China rose to 12,300 RMB/ton, hitting a yearly peak.

In mid-to-late April, geopolitical tensions eased, international buyers resisted high prices, and export orders plummeted. Restarted units such as Fujian Haiquan brought a clear increase in domestic supply. Raw material prices for ethylene and acetic acid fell sharply, causing a collapse in cost support. Coupled with maintenance shutdowns at multiple downstream units, demand failed to keep up, and prices began to correct. Entering May, the price decline accelerated. As of May 20, the petrochemical price in the East China market stood at 7,350 RMB/ton, a drop of 40.24% from the April peak, a year-on-year decline of 30.16% in monthly average prices, and a week-on-week decline of 8.70%. Meanwhile, low-priced calcium carbide process products frequently appeared, and bearish sentiment dominated the market.

2. Core Factors Influencing the Price Decline

From the supply side, the operating rate of calcium carbide process units rose to a high level, combined with the restart of previously idled units, shifting supply from tight to loose. With the recovery of supply in the Asian region and low-price competition from South Korean and Japanese cargoes, China's vinyl acetate export volumes declined sequentially, further increasing pressure on domestic sales. On the demand side, downstream sectors were broadly weak, causing a collapse in essential demand support. Orders for photovoltaic encapsulation film downstream of EVA fell short of expectations, and demand in traditional fields such as footwear materials remained sluggish. Enterprises adopted a hand-to-mouth purchasing approach with no large-scale replenishment. Additionally, high costs reduced corporate willingness to operate, leading to multiple unit shutdowns for maintenance. PVA and VAE emulsion experienced stable digestion, but traditional end-use sectors such as construction and decoration operated at low capacity. Small and medium-sized downstream vinyl acetate enterprises faced insufficient operating rates, with many choosing to halt operations and wait under cost pressure, significantly restraining essential demand. At the same time, raw material prices plummeted on the cost side, completely undermining support. The weak fundamentals of vinyl acetate weighed on the market, with pessimistic expectations prevailing, leading to a broad price decline.

Entering late May, the short-term weak pattern of the domestic vinyl acetate market is unlikely to improve, and prices still have room to decline. On the supply side, ZPC's 300,000-ton/year vinyl acetate unit is scheduled to restart and begin production at the end of May, which will further raise the overall industry operating rate and intensify spot supply pressure. Additionally, Guangxi Huayi's new 300,000-ton/year capacity is set to officially commence production in early June, further strengthening bearish sentiment in the market. On the demand side, there are no clear signs of recovery in demand for major downstream products such as EVA, PVA, and VAE emulsion. Traditional industries are gradually entering the seasonal off-season, and end-user essential procurement remains persistently weak. Market participants hold a strong bearish outlook, and vinyl acetate market prices still have downward room.

Entering June, although some production units in the industry have planned maintenance or reduced operating rates, the concentrated release of new capacity will still exert strong pressure on the spot market, further highlighting the supply-demand imbalance. Raw material markets are trending weakly with no significant upward trend, making it difficult to provide strong cost support for vinyl acetate. At the same time, the downstream market remains in a seasonal consumption off-season, with a lack of incremental boost to end-user demand. Overall, vinyl acetate prices are expected to continue their downward trend in June, with the decline gradually slowing only after prices fall back to near the production cost line of the ethylene process.