Introduction: International oil prices experienced a significant decline this week, primarily driven by bearish factors such as the two-week temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, which abruptly eased geopolitical tensions and weakened support for oil prices. Against this backdrop, how have ethylene tar and related products performed?

I. Crude Oil Market Volatility

From a supply perspective this period, although US-Iran ceasefire talks are planned, there has been no substantial improvement in the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil production in Persian Gulf coastal countries remains low, leading to an overall assessment of decreased supply. On the demand side, refinery operating rates in major Asian consumer countries have dropped to low levels, indicating a weakening in actual crude oil demand and an overall assessment of decreased consumption. The supply-demand balance shows supply falling short of demand, maintaining a significant supply gap. Looking ahead to the next period, significant uncertainty remains regarding US-Iran negotiations, and the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to clear rapidly. The pattern of tight supply is expected to persist in the short term.

International oil prices are expected to have room for decline next week. The core logic for predicting next week's oil price trend is as follows: The US and Iran have reached a two-week temporary ceasefire agreement, requiring close attention to the progress of face-to-face negotiations in Islamabad on April 10th. If both parties reach a preliminary framework, geopolitical risks in the Middle East will cool down temporarily, further weakening support for oil prices. Key areas to monitor include:

1. Supply Side: The Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed, the production reduction pattern among major Middle Eastern oil producers continues, and the difficulty of repairing damaged facilities in the Middle East persists. Coupled with the uncertain prospects of US-Iran negotiations, the risk of supply disruptions remains.
2. Demand Side: Obstructions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to a 10%-20% reduction in operating rates at Asian refineries. Despite the temporary US-Iran ceasefire, refineries remain cautious in restocking. Demand in Europe and the US is constrained by economic and cost pressures, showing insufficient resilience. Multiple institutions warn that prolonged conflict could trigger a US economic recession, dragging down the global economy and crude oil demand, thus putting overall pressure on the demand side.
3. Geopolitical Aspects: The US-Iran situation remains the core factor influencing oil prices. The two-week temporary ceasefire is in effect (until April 22nd), with face-to-face negotiations starting on April 10th. Iran's stance: the US must accept the "ten-point plan" for the ceasefire to be approved. The US stance: demands Iran comply with agreements, with US forces ready to resume operations at any time. Iran's core demands are only seen by the US as a basis for negotiation, and the Lebanon front is not fully included in the ceasefire scope, leaving the stability of the ceasefire uncertain.
4. Financial Attributes: The probability of a Fed rate cut in the first half of the year has significantly decreased. The Middle East situation is pushing up energy inflation, leading to increased market expectations for potential rate hikes.

II. Ethylene Tar Market Reaction

Ethylene tar prices in various regions adjusted based on downstream conditions, showing an overall decline from high levels. Current ethylene tar demand is impacting market transactions. Purchases from downstream carbon black and coating asphalt sectors are below expectations. A risk-averse sentiment dominates the market outlook, and it is expected that the wait-and-see attitude will be difficult to alleviate in the near future.

III. Homogeneous Product Market Reaction

The domestic high-temperature coal tar market continued its narrow-range fluctuation this period, with prices showing mixed movements. Regionally, market divergence is becoming increasingly apparent. While prices in main production areas remain relatively stable, other regions show clear differentiation: prices in the southwest continue to rise, whereas prices in the northeast and Tangshan area operate at relatively low levels. As supply-demand conditions subtly change across regions, the current coal tar market exhibits a pattern of mixed price movements. Overall, downstream operating rates remain high, maintaining strong rigid demand for coal tar. Supported by carbon black producers' price-supporting sentiment, the overall coal tar market trend remains relatively stable. In the short term, given the difficulty in quickly narrowing regional supply-demand differences, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market is expected to maintain its mixed price movement pattern.

This period, carbon black market negotiations for new orders showed price-supporting tendencies. After cost prices stabilized, they provided strong support for negotiated market prices. New order purchase prices from downstream tire manufacturers during the period were higher than those negotiated at the beginning of the month, narrowing the market's loss margin. However, as new orders from some major manufacturers are still under negotiation, the decline in raw material market prices is not significant in the short term. Some enterprises have maintenance plans recently, which will gradually reduce market supply, focusing on inventory digestion. Overall, supported by favorable cost factors, changes in new carbon black market orders are limited, with most maintaining stable shipments.

Coating Asphalt and Negative Electrode: Market activity for petroleum coke weakened, with prices diverging based on type, mainly showing increases ranging from 20 to 100 RMB/ton. Needle coke supply decreased. A coal-based enterprise in Central China recently shut down its coking unit, and an oil-based enterprise in East China stopped its calcination unit at the beginning of the month. Slurry oil resources are scarce in the market, and green coke inventory remains consistently low. The average price for oil-based green coke is 7,200 RMB/ton, and for oil-based calcined coke is 8,600 RMB/ton. Production raw material and processing costs for negative electrode materials have increased, comprehensively pushing up negative electrode costs. There is an intention to negotiate higher prices for negative electrode materials. Meanwhile, prices for coating asphalt and insulation/resistance materials have also risen.

IV. Summary

As of early April 2026, the market's core logic is shifting from geopolitically-driven strong crude oil expectations to being dominated by supply-demand fundamentals and downstream negative feedback. Ethylene tar is currently in a phase of weak adjustment. The ethylene tar market is under the combined pressure of three bearish factors: "weakening cost support + downstream negative feedback + risk-averse sentiment," making weak adjustment the main theme. Unless there is a sudden improvement in downstream demand or another sharp surge in crude oil prices, a market reversal is unlikely.