Introduction: Geopolitical détente in the Middle East pushed international oil prices lower, rapidly eroding strong cost-side support. Ethylene unit operating rates have increased domestically, leading to a slight rise in cracked C9 supply. Demand for downstream C9 petroleum resin and industrial aromatic solvents remains persistently weak, with strong resistance to high-priced feedstock. Under the confluence of multiple bearish factors, cracked C9 prices have dropped sharply, plunging the market into a deeply weak state characterized by fragile costs, increasing supply, and sluggish demand. Downward pressure persists in the short term.

Domestic Spot Market: Overall steep decline, with significantly widened regional price spreads.
Cracked C9 Price Comparison (2025-2026) (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data Source: chempricehub

During this cycle, the domestic cracked C9 market experienced a cliff-like decline. Major producers' prices continuously dropped, and independent refineries' quotations weakened in tandem. The national average price fell to 5,329 RMB/ton, a sharp drop of 1,102 RMB/ton from the previous period's 6,431 RMB/ton, representing a substantial decline of 17.14%, making it one of the most notable decliners in the recent chemical market.

Regionally, prices corrected deeply across the board:

Table 1: China Cracked C9 Regional Price Comparison (Unit: RMB/ton)

| Product | Region/Category | Current Period Average | Previous Period Average | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracked C9 | Northeast China | 4400 | 5700 | -1300 | -22.81% | RMB/ton |
| Cracked C9 | North China | 4600 | 5900 | -1300 | -22.03% | RMB/ton |
| Cracked C9 | East China | 5062 | 5962 | -900 | -15.10% | RMB/ton |
| Cracked C9 | Central China | 5200 | 6000 | -800 | -13.33% | RMB/ton |
| Cracked C9 | South China | 5165 | 5770 | -605 | -10.49% | RMB/ton |

Data Source: chempricehub

The price spread between East China and North China widened to 600 RMB/ton, opening up cross-regional arbitrage opportunities. Market transactions were thin, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Low-priced cargo saw limited offtake, while high-priced resources attracted almost no inquiries.

Core Drivers: Triple pressures converging, driving prices down rapidly.

Table 2: China Cracked C9 Industry Chain Price Comparison (Unit: RMB/ton)

| Product | Region/Category | 2026/4/17 | 2026/4/23 | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracked C9 | China Average | 5329 | 6431 | -1102 | -17.14% | RMB/ton |
| Industrial Aromatic Solvent | East China | 5464 | 6239 | -775 | -12.42% | RMB/ton |
| C9 Petroleum Resin | North China | 7973 | 8466 | -493 | -5.82% | RMB/ton |

Data Source: chempricehub

During this cycle, international crude oil prices experienced mixed movements, but the easing situation in the Middle East and reduced concerns over a Strait of Hormuz blockade rapidly removed the strong cost support for cracked C9. The domestic gasoline market weakened, with prices continuously falling, dragging down oil-related products. Concurrently, supply steadily increased. No new ethylene plant maintenance shutdowns occurred this week, while units at Sinopec SABIC Tianjin Petrochemical and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical increased operating rates. Cracked C9 production reached 56,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 800 tons, with capacity utilization rising 1.02 percentage points to 71.53%. The expectation of ample supply further pressured market sentiment.

Performance of the two major downstream products was lackluster, failing to drive feedstock demand. The national average price of industrial aromatic solvent was 5,464 RMB/ton, down 775 RMB/ton (12.42%) week-on-week. The national average price of C9 petroleum resin was 7,973 RMB/ton, down 493 RMB/ton (5.82%) week-on-week. Capacity utilization in the C9 petroleum resin sector remained low at 41.30%. Downstream players showed strong resistance to high-priced feedstock, with a clear "buy on strength, sell on weakness" mentality. Companies only replenished for rigid needs, and overall purchasing enthusiasm was poor. Market transactions remained persistently thin, providing little effective support for cracked C9 from the demand side.

Industry Chain Transmission: Divergent profits, downstream losses partially recovered.
Profits across the cracked C9 industry chain showed divergent recovery this week. Gross profit for industrial aromatic solvents rebounded to -1,190 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 458 RMB/ton (27.79%), as the product price decline was smaller than that of the feedstock, narrowing loss margins. The theoretical gross profit for thermally polymerized C9 petroleum resin was 749 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 427 RMB/ton (132.61%), as the resin price drop was smaller than that of the feedstock, significantly improving profitability. However, this profit recovery did not spur downstream buying interest. The wait-and-see stance among end-users persisted, and the market stalemate of "difficult trades at low prices, no demand at high prices" remained unbroken, meaning the industry chain transmission remains hindered.

Summary and Outlook

Currently, the cracked C9 market is under triple pressures: weakened cost support, modestly increasing supply, and sluggish downstream demand. The tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continues, with a bearish sentiment dominating the market. The weak pattern is unlikely to change in the short term.

Future Outlook:

• Cost Side: International oil prices have potential for an upward correction, slightly raising the bottom support, but the boost to the market is limited.
• Supply Side: No new ethylene plant maintenance is scheduled. Some units have completed maintenance and resumed supply, leading to a continued slight increase in overall supply, prolonging the bearish impact.
• Demand Side: Some C9 petroleum resin producers are undergoing maintenance, leading to a slight decline in operating rates. Industrial aromatic solvents may see a slight demand pickup supported by pre-May Day holiday stockpiling, but any real increase in demand is unlikely, providing insufficient support for the feedstock.

The cracked C9 market is expected to continue its weak and volatile movement in the short term, with the mainstream price range forecasted at 4,400 - 4,800 RMB/ton, with a narrower decline compared to this week. Key focus areas include the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, crude oil price trends, downstream operating rates, and inventory replenishment dynamics. If cost support improves or downstream demand sees a phased release, the market may find a tentative bottom. Otherwise, downward pressure will persist.