Since March, previously idled units for acetic anhydride have gradually resumed operations, leading to increased supply, while downstream sectors such as pharmaceuticals, dyes, and coatings have sequentially recovered, releasing rigid demand in a concentrated manner, resulting in a simultaneous increase in both supply and demand. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have caused persistent disruptions, with international crude oil prices surging significantly. The prices of raw materials like methanol and coal have fluctuated, and the price of glacial acetic acid has risen sharply, directly driving up production costs for acetic anhydride. Corporate cost pressures have notably intensified, fueling a strong willingness to support prices. Market participants have become more active, with end-users and traders aggressively procuring from the market. Major producers have faced no inventory pressure, and as a mid-to-late month short-term shutdown of a cracking unit at Lunan Chemical further tightened supply, enterprises implemented limited sales against a backdrop of inventory strain, rapidly pushing acetic anhydride prices upward.

Entering April, the market for the primary raw material glacial acetic acid shifted from its earlier upward trend, with prices gradually stabilizing. However, low inventory levels and frequent unexpected unit failures at companies have kept glacial acetic acid supply data at a low point, still supporting firm prices. Regarding methanol, persistently low international operating rates and sustained low import volumes, along with the normal pattern of high volatility in the domestic market, have kept domestic methanol prices elevated. This has maintained high acetic anhydride prices. Mid-month, although geopolitical conflicts have generally eased, localized disruptions remain unresolved. The market sentiment previously driven by speculation over conflicts has rapidly faded, and the release of rigid end-user demand continues to be weak. These multiple bearish factors have combined to shift the overall commodity market sentiment toward weakness, with prices of most chemical products trending downward. Glacial acetic acid prices have seen a deep decline, and domestic methanol has ended its earlier continuous upward trend, with prices turning from gains to losses, officially entering a phase of periodic adjustment. With weakening support from the cost side, acetic anhydride prices have consequently followed suit in a correction.

Looking ahead to May, the domestic methanol market remains in a period of phased adjustment, with regional differentiation expected to continue to be pronounced. The inland market, supported by low inventories and strong costs, has limited room for price corrections and will maintain a relatively stable operational trend. In contrast, the port market faces short-term volatility pressures due to expectations of ample imports, weaker futures market performance, and sluggish downstream demand. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the Strait passage situation, as well as downstream sector operating rates and profit recovery progress. Most planned maintenance units for glacial acetic acid have not been implemented as scheduled, resulting in high operating rates on the supply side and gradually rising corporate inventories. Downstream demand performance has been subpar, with resistance to high-priced raw materials. Even after a deep decline, prices have not yet reached the psychological acceptance point, and purchasing willingness remains low, suppressing further declines in glacial acetic acid prices.

Supply-side fluctuations for acetic anhydride are minimal, while downstream demand sentiment is cautious. Sectors such as fibers and coatings have stable but unremarkable demand growth, and areas like pharmaceuticals and new materials, though showing growth, have small bases, making it difficult to drive overall demand. Acceptance of high-priced raw materials has further decreased, and especially with sustained pressure from the cost side, bearish market sentiment has intensified. Therefore, it is expected that acetic anhydride prices will continue to consolidate weakly in May. If upstream acetic acid prices fail to stabilize, or if downstream demand does not show significant improvement, prices may face further downward pressure.