【Introduction】 The acetone market has been trending weakly recently, with the price center in East China steadily declining. The current market is characterized by weakened cost support and a stalemate between supply and demand.

Since May, the acetone market price has shown a pattern of alternating gains and losses. According to data from chempricehub on May 22, Sinopec East China and North China have both lowered their ex‑factory prices by 100–200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price range in the East China market has fallen to 7,550–7,600 yuan/ton. On May 25, international crude oil dropped sharply during intraday trading, heightening market uncertainty. The raw material pure benzene broke down in price, and acetone prices continued to show a downward trend, still failing to exit the weak state.

(I) Weakened Cost Support

Recently, the upstream raw material pure benzene market has declined, directly weakening cost support for acetone. Although costs had previously surged due to geopolitical conflicts, the driving effect from the cost side has significantly diminished as the situation eases, even showing a decoupling from raw material prices. Currently, phenol‑ketone plants are consistently operating at a loss. As of May 25, the loss for Sinopec East China phenol‑ketone producers stood at -983 yuan/ton.

(II) Limited Supply Pressure

Table: Summary of phenol‑ketone unit maintenance in May (Unit: 10,000 tons/year, days)

| Producer | Capacity | Start Time | End Time | Maintenance Days | Reason |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CNOOC Shell | 13 | 2023/7/1 | -- | -- | Economic |
| Huizhou Zhongxin (Phase I) | 12 | 2026/4/11 | -- | -- | Planned |
| Moyiwei Chemical (Shanghai) | 21 | 2026/4/14 | 2026/5/23 | 40 | Planned |
| Gaohua Materials | 15 | 2026/5/12 | 2026/6/29 | 49 | Planned |
| Bluestar Harbin | 6 | 2026/5/18 | 2026/6/5 | 19 | Planned |
| Yangzhou Shiyou | 12 | 2026/5/20 | 2026/5/29 | 10 | Planned |
| Wanhua Chemical | 31 | 2026/5/20 | 2026/5/24 | 5 | Temporary shutdown |
| Total | 110 | -- | -- | -- | -- |

In May, domestic phenol‑ketone unit maintenance was relatively concentrated. Units including Moyiwei Chemical (Shanghai), Gaohua Materials, Bluestar Harbin, Yangzhou Shiyou, and Wanhua Chemical successively underwent maintenance, causing the overall industry capacity utilization rate to once fall to a low of 67%.

At the same time, port inventories have experienced a moderate accumulation. As of May 25, the acetone port inventory in Jiangyin, China, stood at 18,000 tons, of which Hengyang held 2,000 tons and Huaxi held 16,000 tons. Recent arrivals have mainly been supplemented by cargo from Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and domestic sources. The pressure from circulating spot supply is not significant, with traders arranging shipments as planned, while end‑user factories mostly purchase on a need‑based basis.

(III) Weak Downstream Demand

From the perspective of the industrial chain transmission, major downstream products of acetone—bisphenol A, isopropanol, and MIBK—are generally operating at a loss, leading to strong resistance against high‑priced acetone. Downstream factories mainly maintain essential procurement, with large‑volume transactions being rare, resulting in a subdued market trading atmosphere. The isopropanol industry has a significant impact on the acetone spot market, but its production margins have turned negative, and prices continue to decline due to the failure of cost support. Consequently, few are actively entering the market to replenish stock, with most waiting for further market clarity.

(IV) Short‑Term Forecast: Focus on Unit and Inventory Changes as well as Cost Fluctuations

Chempricehub analysis predicts that the acetone market will likely continue to operate in a range‑bound, weak trend in the short term, but the room for further significant declines is limited. From the supply side, the tight supply situation will ease slightly in June due to new unit product supply and the restart of some units after maintenance. It is expected that domestic acetone supply will reach 300,900 tons in June, with a capacity utilization rate of 81.46%. Current port inventories are at relatively low levels, and phenol‑ketone enterprises are suffering serious losses, so factories have a weak willingness to cut prices further, which may provide bottom support for the market. On the cost side, if raw materials continue to weaken, it will further drag down the market. With the arrival of hot weather in June, there is no clear sign of improvement in downstream demand, which will also limit the upward momentum of acetone.

Overall, if unplanned unit maintenance or an unexpected rebound in costs occurs in the short term, acetone market prices may see a modest recovery. However, constrained by weak demand, the upside and sustainability of any rebound will be limited, and the market will likely maintain a consolidating pattern as a transition.