Summary: Recently, upstream crude oil and pure benzene prices have continued to be disturbed by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, leading to significant price increases. The cost of caprolactam has once again risen rapidly. Driven by cost advantages, caprolactam prices have followed the upward trend.
Crude oil and pure benzene prices rise, providing strong cost support
Recently, the U.S.-Iran military conflict has continued to escalate. The U.S. has reinstated its maritime blockade of Iran, and Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, raising market concerns about supply disruption risks. International oil prices have surged. As of July 16, the NYMEX crude oil futures contract for August stood at $78.95/barrel, and the ICE Brent crude oil futures contract for September was at $84.23/barrel. Supported strongly by crude oil, coupled with concentrated maintenance at domestic refineries, pure benzene production has declined, import arrivals have remained low, and ports have maintained a destocking trend. Under these circumstances, the pure benzene supply situation is tight. Market buying sentiment has significantly improved, sellers are more inclined to hold firm prices, and spot prices have risen steadily. Sinopec has raised its pure benzene listed prices multiple times. Currently, Sinopec's pure benzene listing price has been raised to 8,000 yuan/ton.
Cost advantage leads, caprolactam prices follow the rise
The rapid rebound in upstream crude oil and pure benzene prices has strongly pushed up caprolactam costs, prompting upward adjustments in caprolactam product prices. Additionally, the low operating rates of caprolactam plants and the tight supply situation have also provided price support, causing the caprolactam price center to gradually move upward. As of Friday, the spot price of caprolactam in the East China market was 11,950 yuan/ton (accepted delivery), with some quotes rising to 12,150 yuan/ton.
However, looking at the price transmission along the industrial chain, the upstream raw material market has risen strongly, but the downstream and end-user follow-up remains slow. Judging from the weekly price changes of upstream and downstream products in the industrial chain, the price increases for downstream PA6 and spinning yarn have been insufficient to keep pace. The procurement attitude on the demand side remains cautious, and the price increases for downstream products are gradually narrowing.
Price List of Caprolactam and Related Products (Unit: yuan/ton unless noted)
| Product | Region/Type | Weekly Avg. Price | Previous Weekly Avg. Price | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | NYMEX | 76.11 | 70.3 | 5.81 | 8.26% | USD/barrel |
| ICE Brent Crude Oil Futures | 81.06 | 73.62 | 7.44 | 10.11% | USD/barrel | |
| Pure Benzene | East China Spot | 7733 | 7090 | 643 | 9.07% | yuan/ton |
| FOB Korea | 918 | 852.8 | 65.2 | 7.65% | USD/ton | |
| Cyclohexanone | East China | 8660 | 8200 | 460 | 5.61% | yuan/ton |
| Caprolactam | Liquid East China Spot | 11680 | 11060 | 620 | 5.61% | yuan/ton |
| PA6 Regular Spinning Chip | East China Market | 11960 | 11530 | 430 | 3.73% | yuan/ton |
| PA6 High-Speed Spinning Chip | East China Spot | 12150 | 11610 | 540 | 4.65% | yuan/ton |
| Nylon Filament POY | East China | 13480 | 13440 | 40 | 0.30% | yuan/ton |
| Nylon Filament DTY | East China | 15580 | 15540 | 40 | 0.26% | yuan/ton |
| Nylon Filament FDY | East China | 13580 | 13560 | 20 | 0.15% | yuan/ton |
| Nylon Staple Fiber 1.5D | East China | 13600 | 13300 | 300 | 2.26% | yuan/ton |
Under short-term strong cost support, caprolactam is expected to maintain a firm trend
Looking ahead, the market is currently significantly affected by the cost side. If crude oil prices remain firm next week, and given the tight supply of pure benzene and low port inventories, pure benzene prices are expected to remain strong. The dominant influence of the cost side on the caprolactam market will persist. Additionally, with caprolactam plants incurring losses and concentrated maintenance and load reductions, the overall supply situation is also expected to remain tight. Caprolactam plant quotations will mainly follow the upward trend of pure benzene. On the demand side, attention needs to be paid to the follow-up situation of PA6 chips. PA6 chip price increases are relatively small. If polymerization unit maintenance increases later, it may also constrain the magnitude of caprolactam price increases.
Comments
0