Introduction: The international crude oil market experienced a significant downturn driven by easing signals from US-Iran talks, completely eroding cost-side support. Domestically, several maintenance units resumed operations, leading to a slight increase in supply. Coupled with declining downstream transactions and persistent resistance sentiment, the market is characterized by a weak pattern of "weak costs, increasing supply, and sluggish demand." Short-term prices still have room to decline.

Domestic Spot Market Reaction
The domestic pyrolysis C9 market weakened across the board recently, with prices in all regions experiencing substantial corrections and trading remaining stagnant. Cost collapse and supply increase have become the core factors suppressing prices.

According to data from chempricehub, the national average price for pyrolysis C9 in this period was 6,431 yuan/ton, a decrease of 222 yuan/ton or 3.34% compared to the previous period's 6,653 yuan/ton. Regionally, all areas saw significant declines. South China recorded the steepest drop at 12.97%, followed by North China, Northeast China, and Central China, all with declines exceeding 10%. East China fell by 9.14%. The mainstream transaction range was 5,700-6,000 yuan/ton. International crude oil prices plunged significantly due to signals from US-Iran talks. The weekly average price for Brent crude was $96.04/barrel, down $9.67/barrel or 9.15% from the previous period. With cost support completely absent, factory offers followed suit, and market discussions remained subdued.

Industrial Chain Value Transmission Remains Manageable
The supply of pyrolysis C9 showed a moderate recovery trend, with no additional import sources available, leading to a slight increase in market circulation volume. Production in this period reached 56,000 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons or 2.00% from the previous period. Industry capacity utilization stood at 70.51%, up 1.44 percentage points. The production increase primarily came from Lanzhou Petrochemical's stable operation after completing maintenance. No new units underwent shutdowns for maintenance during the week, although several existing units experienced load fluctuations. The restart progress of previously idled enterprises was slow. Overall, while supply increased, it did not lead to a loose market structure.

Downstream Transactions Decline, Resistance Sentiment Persists
The cost collapse and supply increase failed to stimulate downstream demand recovery. Instead, they intensified market bearish sentiment. Downstream purchasing remained deadlocked, with pronounced resistance to raw material prices, resulting in an overall lack of demand momentum.

• Industrial Aromatic Solvents: The national average price in this period was 6,239 yuan/ton, down 514 yuan/ton or 7.61% from the previous period, continuing its downward trend. Affected by the slump in international crude oil, domestic gasoline sales were sluggish, with weekly declines exceeding 700 yuan/ton, dragging down spot prices for industrial aromatic solvents across the board. Bearish sentiment intensified within the market. Downstream customers showed insufficient willingness to purchase high-priced raw materials, maintaining only essential restocking. The weekly average gross loss expanded to -1,648 yuan/ton, a 15.65% increase in loss magnitude compared to the previous period.

• C9 Petroleum Resin: The national average price was 8,466 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous period, with enterprise offers stable to slightly lower. The sharp decline in raw material pyrolysis C9 prices weakened cost support for resins, leading to a drop in light-colored resin prices. Compounded by the downstream "buy on rising prices, not on falling prices" mentality, purchasing enthusiasm slowed. Actual transactions were mostly based on flexible negotiations. Although theoretical profits increased by 25.78% to 322 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, industry capacity utilization remained low at 41.30%. Some enterprises adjusted loads based on demand, indicating weak demand-side pull for raw materials.

Overall, transactions in the two major downstream sectors declined. Inquiry activity in non-fuel sectors weakened, and market wait-and-see sentiment prevailed, creating a deadlock characterized by "difficulty in transacting at low prices and no demand at high prices," further constraining any recovery in pyrolysis C9 prices.

Summary and Outlook
The current pyrolysis C9 market faces triple pressures from falling crude oil prices, increasing supply, and weak demand. The lack of cost support and insufficient downstream absorption are reinforcing each other, highlighting the market's weak structure. Looking ahead, international oil prices are still expected to decline, leading to further weakening of cost-side support. On the supply side, no new ethylene unit maintenance is scheduled for the next period, while some enterprises will resume supply after completing maintenance, leading to a continued slight increase in overall supply. Regarding demand, operating rates for downstream industrial aromatic solvents and C9 petroleum resin are expected to remain stable, with insufficient incremental demand from end-users. Market bearish sentiment is unlikely to ease quickly.

chempricehub forecasts that pyrolysis C9 prices will continue their weak downward trend in the short term, with a mainstream trading range of 5,200-5,600 yuan/ton. Close attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, crude oil price trends, and the recovery of downstream demand. If cost-side factors rebound or downstream demand recovers, prices may stabilize temporarily. Otherwise, downward pressure will persist.