Production: Previously restarted units mostly operated steadily during the week, with continued attention on unit developments in the Shandong market.
Demand: UPR — the operating rate during the week was 32.5%, with overall capacity utilization stable compared with the previous week. Production at unsaturated resin plants fluctuated little. This week, a unit in Tianjin restarted, offsetting the output decline caused by a shutdown at a unit in Nantong, keeping production stable week on week. Polyether — spot market inquiry activity was limited. With raw materials rising sharply, producers were forced to raise offers in tandem, and risk-aversion sentiment in the market deepened, with most participants withdrawing offers and adopting a wait-and-see stance. Key focus should remain on downstream buying sentiment and raw material news.
| Figure 1: Comparison of Propylene Glycol Price Trends in Shandong, China, 2024-2026 (Unit: RMB/mt) |
|---|
| Data source: Chempricehub Information |
Table 1: Weekly Price Change Table for Domestic Propylene Glycol Market (Unit: RMB/mt)
| Market | This Week | Last Week | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong | 9245 | 9055 | 190 | 2.10% |
| Jiangsu | 9050 | 8880 | 170 | 1.91% |
| Guangdong | 9120 | 8905 | 215 | 2.41% |
| Data source: Chempricehub Information | ||||
| This week, prices fell early in the week amid weak raw material support and sluggish demand. Midweek, a strong rally in crude oil and upstream raw materials drove a rebound and pushed prices higher. In the latter part of the week, demand at high levels was mediocre, causing the upward momentum to stall and prices to consolidate at highs. Overall, this week's propylene glycol market fluctuations relied entirely on cost-side movements, while demand remained passively follower. Peak-season expectations did not materialize effectively, and support from rigid demand was weak. The market as a whole displayed the operating characteristics of "costs driving the market, demand determining the ceiling." |
As of the September 10 close, the comprehensive gross profit of domestic PO transesterification-based propylene glycol & dimethyl carbonate this week was +1,673.52 RMB/mt, up 39.71% week on week.
At the end of last week, market prices remained locked in a high-level stalemate, terminal buying follow-through was weak, and overall market trading was lackluster. Early this week, suppliers concentrated on cutting offers, and market prices quickly fell back to a阶段性 low. The trading atmosphere at low levels improved slightly, but actual transactions still left room for negotiation. Midweek, driven by a sharp rally in international crude oil, prices of upstream raw materials propylene and propylene oxide continued to rise. With strong cost-side support, operating plants followed suit and raised prices, and the market rebounded sharply, once again surging toward a阶段性 high. After prices reached highs, wait-and-see sentiment in the market rapidly heated up. Downstream domestic demand and export demand were both mainly cautious, rigid-demand purchases, with insufficient willingness to chase highs. The overall market showed the core pattern of "cost-driven price increases, demand constraining gains."
Looking ahead, the propylene glycol market may still have some upward room before pulling back, with domestic and export buyers expected to remain cautious about chasing highs.
On the raw material side, this week the domestic propylene oxide market once again showed a pattern of sideways consolidation followed by a rally. Around the end of last week, the market broke through the 10,000 mark and then moved sideways. Over the weekend, various parties jostled and consolidated. Early in the week, amid wait-and-see sentiment and poor downstream transmission, plants made moderate downward adjustments, and bearish sentiment dominated the market. However, crude oil fluctuated sharply again, and with the main raw material propylene rising sharply, market sentiment quickly warmed. Terminals and downstream players followed suit one after another, and propylene oxide turned stronger and moved upward. Coupled with the fact that supply increments in the market had not yet materialized, the market pushed up broadly for several consecutive days to a recent new high. However, as prices move further up later, some fear of heights may emerge, and limited downward transmission may curb performance. Specifically, attention should be paid to whether prices still have some upward room before turning sideways and then weakening.
On the demand side, domestic unsaturated resin market prices are expected to continue rising next week. Cost-side support remains firm, and the spot price center may continue to rise, but high-priced cargoes still need to be gradually accepted and digested by downstream buyers. In the short term, the market may maintain high-level consolidation with the center continuing to rise. Specifically: 1. Supply side. The overall operating load of unsaturated resin plants is expected to rise steadily. Units shut down earlier are expected to resume production next week one after another, driving a slight increase in overall output. 2. Demand side. Resin prices continue to climb, downstream willingness to chase gains is limited, spot transactions are mainly small rigid-demand orders, and the pace of trading is relatively slow. However, boosted by expectations for the traditional "Golden September" peak season, downstream orders and rigid demand may gradually increase, though the actual realization still needs to be observed. 3. Cost side. Major raw materials such as styrene and maleic anhydride showed relatively strong performance, and prices still have room to rise, providing strong support for resin costs.
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