According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the toluene market showed an upward trend from January 1 to January 15, 2026. The benchmark price of toluene was 5,170 yuan/ton on January 1 and 5,310 yuan/ton on January 15, representing an increase of 2.71%. The core drivers of the market's upward movement during this period stemmed from cost support from crude oil, tightening supply, and favorable linkages within the aromatics industry chain. However, in the later stages, influenced by wide fluctuations in crude oil prices, cautious downstream buying amid price increases, and divergent regional supply expectations, the market's momentum for further gains weakened, with increasing pressure to maintain stability at high levels.

Cost Aspect: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of January 15, the settlement price for the March contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was reported at $59.08 per barrel, while the settlement price for the March contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported at $63.76 per barrel. During this period, international crude oil prices exhibited a wide fluctuation pattern characterized by "initial consecutive gains followed by a significant correction towards the end of the month," resulting in phased differences in cost support for the toluene market. In the early stage, international crude oil futures achieved five consecutive days of gains, with WTI crude oil rising above $60 per barrel and Brent crude oil also moving higher, both reaching their highest levels in nearly two months. This created a strong atmosphere in the bulk commodity market, directly driving the upward movement of toluene and related upstream and downstream aromatics product prices. Domestic crude oil futures also strengthened in tandem, rising continuously from January 9 to January 13. The closing price on January 13 reached 445.6 yuan/barrel, an increase of 29.4 yuan/barrel compared to the low on January 8, indicating significant cost-side support.

However, on January 15, international oil prices experienced a sharp decline as geopolitical premiums rapidly dissipated. Influenced by factors such as eased tensions between Venezuela and the United States, a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, and a decline in OPEC+ production cut compliance, WTI crude oil fell by 3.31% in a single day to $59.83 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped 3.49% to $64.19 per barrel, marking the largest single-day decline since November 2025. The short-term sharp correction in oil prices weakened cost-side support for toluene. Coupled with heightened market expectations for subsequent oil price volatility, sentiment for chasing gains in the toluene market was suppressed, leading to insufficient momentum for further price increases.

Supply Aspect: During this period, domestic toluene supply was generally tight overall, with significant regional divergence due to differences in plant operations and arrival volumes, becoming a core driver supporting the price increase. The Shandong region maintained a tight supply-demand balance, exhibiting the strongest price support momentum. The delayed restart of Xinyue Chemical's plant and the shutdown for maintenance at Youtai Technology, combined with Huaxing Petrochemical primarily using toluene internally and reduced regional circulation from Yulong Petrochemical, led to a continuous contraction in supply. Refinery auction premiums became normalized, with active price increases in quotations pushing prices above the 5,000 yuan/ton threshold, resulting in active trading. In the Jiangsu region, a decline in ship arrivals at storage terminals led to tight spot supply. Coupled with the positive impact of rising crude oil and aromatics product prices, holders actively supported prices, with frequent paper trading. The opening of export arbitrage windows further strengthened the reluctance to sell, causing prices to follow the upward trend in Shandong. The Guangdong region exhibited a "tight first, then loose" trend, where delayed ship arrivals in the early stage promoted destocking and price increases, while subsequent ship arrivals later put pressure on prices. Additionally, domestic major refineries maintained stable operations but with a higher proportion of internal usage. Sinopec's toluene plants operated normally with stable production, with most products used internally and balanced production and sales. As of December 12, the quoted prices were 5,400 yuan/ton for the East China company, 5,200 yuan/ton for the North China company, 5,500 yuan/ton for the South China company, and 5,250 yuan/ton for the Central China company.