Preface: In the first half of 2026, the domestic cyclohexanone market exhibited an overall trend of "a sharp surge and spike, followed by persistent volatile declines." The industry's integrated supporting systems are becoming increasingly mature, with overall volatility in the supply and demand of circulating commodity volumes remaining limited. The primary core driver for the significant upward trend in the cyclohexanone market was the disruption to the crude oil and pure benzene industrial chains caused by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. The substantial increase in raw material costs directly pushed cyclohexanone prices higher. However, downstream end-users maintained a conservative procurement mindset, with insufficient order growth, meaning the price increase lacked sustainability. Demand-side factors dominated the market, leading prices to subsequently enter a volatile downward channel.
Domestic Cyclohexanone Market Price Comparison Table for January-June 2026 (Unit: RMB/ton)
| Item | Unit | Jan-Jun 2025 | Jan-Jun 2026 | Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong (Ex-works) | RMB/ton | 8019 | 8487 | 468 | 5.84% |
| East China (Delivered) | RMB/ton | 8289 | 8855 | 566 | 6.83% |
| South China (Delivered) | RMB/ton | 8325 | 8764 | 439 | 5.27% |
In the first half of 2026, the cyclohexanone market experienced a pattern of an initial sharp surge and spike, followed by persistent volatile declines. The average price in the East China market was 8855 RMB/ton during the period, an increase of approximately 6.83% year-on-year. At the beginning of the year, the East China cyclohexanone market fluctuated narrowly at a low level of 6700 RMB/ton. Stimulated by pre-Chinese New Year restocking from downstream caprolactam and solvent markets, coupled with support from upstream pure benzene price increases, the market price of cyclohexanone steadily rose to 7500 RMB/ton (cash delivered). In late February, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East disrupted crude oil and pure benzene markets, leading to a significant surge in raw material costs, which further drove cyclohexanone prices upward. However, overall downstream procurement remained cautious, with limited order releases, causing the price rally to lack sustained momentum. After peaking, prices entered a wide-range volatile fluctuation between 9500 and 10500 RMB/ton.
Entering June, the operating rates of downstream caprolactam plants continued to decline, and orders for chemical fiber end-products decreased significantly. Conversely, the profit margins along the cyclohexanone industrial chain remained relatively acceptable, with most production enterprises not reducing operating rates in sync with caprolactam. Consequently, the supply of circulating spot cyclohexanone resources remained ample, weakening the market's supply-demand dynamics. Simultaneously, upstream pure benzene prices continuously declined, leading to a further weakening of cost-side support. Under the confluence of multiple negative factors, the cyclohexanone market price continued its volatile downward trajectory. As of June 30, the reference price in the Shandong market was 7700 RMB/ton (cash ex-works), and the East China cyclohexanone price was referenced at 8100-8200 RMB/ton (cash delivered).
The price of cyclohexanone is strongly correlated with the price of its raw material, pure benzene, and adjusts in tandem with pure benzene price changes. Being an intermediate product, and with the domestic cyclohexanone-caprolactam integration being well-established, the supply and demand of cyclohexanone commodity volumes are continuously adjusted, maintaining a basic state of weak equilibrium. The benzene-cyclohexanone price spread generally remains around 1500 RMB/ton. According to statistics from chempricehub, the hydration process for cyclohexanone resulted in a loss of 236 RMB/ton, while the oxidation process (calculated based on pure benzene raw material costs) resulted in a loss of 736 RMB/ton. The correlation between cyclohexanone price and upstream pure benzene is extremely strong, with the price trend closely following the fluctuations of pure benzene. Currently, the domestic cyclohexanone-caprolactam integration is mature, and the supply-demand dynamics of circulating commodity volumes are dynamically adjusted, maintaining an overall pattern of weak equilibrium, with the conventional benzene-cyclohexanone price spread stabilizing around 1500 RMB/ton.
Regarding production profitability, data compiled by chempricehub indicates: the hydration process for cyclohexanone recorded a loss of 236 RMB/ton, while the oxidation process (calculated using pure benzene as the raw material cost basis) recorded a loss of 736 RMB/ton.
Export volumes of cyclohexanone in the first half of 2026 showed significant year-on-year growth. The total cumulative export volume from January to May was 84,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 161.09%. The domestic cyclohexanone market has long experienced oversupply, with the overall industry operating near the cost line. Even though a high proportion of domestic cyclohexanone is integrated with caprolactam production units, the domestic price advantage is significant, driving export volumes substantially higher compared to the same period last year.
Forecast for Raw Material Pure Benzene Trends: Regarding the raw material pure benzene, with the decline in crude oil prices and the resumption of normal maritime passage, July is projected to be the only month in the second half of the year where the pure benzene supply-demand balance shows a deficit. From August to December, previously idled pure benzene plants are expected to resume operations, leading to ample supply. The supply-demand balance returning to a surplus will exert downward pressure on prices. Pure benzene will move away from the high-price territory caused by the supply shortage in the first half, with prices expected to fall back to around 6000 RMB/ton.
Cyclohexanone Supply-Demand and Price Logic: As a core intermediate for caprolactam, the cyclohexanone industry's operating rate and circulating commodity volumes will flexibly adjust based on the demand from downstream caprolactam, PA6, and textile/apparel end-markets. The supply-demand balance for commodity volumes will continue to maintain a weak equilibrium.
Conclusion: Based on a comprehensive assessment of supply, demand, and costs across the industrial chain, pure benzene will become the core pricing anchor for cyclohexanone in the second half of the year, with cyclohexanone prices adjusting synchronously with raw material price fluctuations. Significant improvement in the profitability of the hydration process for cyclohexanone is unlikely, and it is expected to continue hovering near the cost line. The central tendency for the benzene-cyclohexanone price spread is expected to remain around 1500 RMB/ton.
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