In 2025, China's dichloromethane market was deeply mired in a triple dilemma of "high supply, weak demand, and low profits," with prices hitting a historic low and industry adjustment pressures accumulating comprehensively. As a critical transition year for the supply-demand landscape in 2026, the market will continue its weak trajectory. However, under the combined effects of supply structure optimization, intensified demand differentiation, and cost transmission reshaping, the market will exhibit new characteristics of "variability within weakness and intensified differentiation," making a trend reversal unlikely. I. Review of the 2025 Market: Core Logic of the Deep Bottom 2025 was a year of concentrated contradictions in the dichloromethane industry. The market trend followed a core trajectory of "unilateral decline with weak, unsustainable rebounds," laying the foundation for a 2026 market dominated by "supply-demand imbalance and ineffective cost support." (I) Price Trend: Historic Breakdown, Weak Rebound • Record-breaking Deep Bottom: Market prices in the Shandong region declined continuously from the year's high, falling below the critical threshold of 2,000 RMB/ton in the fourth quarter to hit a historic low of 1,662.5 RMB/ton. The annual decline exceeded 41%, with prices lingering at low levels by year-end. • Persistent Weakness Difficult to Reverse: The annual average price was approximately 2,140 RMB/ton, a significant 16% drop from 2024. Multiple阶段性反弹s during the year quickly faded due to unresolved supply-demand矛盾,呈现 a typical pattern of "gradual decline + weak rebound." (II) Core Drivers: Supply-Demand Imbalance Dominates, Cost Benefits Ineffective • Supply Side: High Operating Rates + New Capacity, Sustained Loose Supply. Industry operating rates remained high, ranging between 65% and 86%. Trial production at new facilities like Hunan Hengyang, Shandong Yonghao, and Taike, along with capacity expansion at Huichang Yonghe, further increased output. Meanwhile, constrained by environmental policies and requirements for operational stability, companies had limited room for proactive production cuts. Insufficient supply elasticity led to持续 market pressure. • Demand Side: Structural Differentiation, Overall Weakness. Refrigerant R32, the largest downstream sector (accounting for approximately 41%), saw annual demand grow by 5.11% year-on-year to 505,000 tons, providing the only rigid支撑. However, as procurement is primarily for internal配套, it failed to generate external demand拉动. Demand in traditional sectors like pharmaceuticals, solvents, and metal cleaning declined by 8%-15% year-on-year. Coupled with substitution pressure from alternatives like dichloroethane, domestic demand provided weak overall支撑. Exports surged by 44.4% year-on-year, mainly流向 emerging markets like Turkey and Vietnam, but this essentially represented被动消化 of domestic过剩产能 rather than主动 demand growth. • Cost Side: Benefits Overridden, Transmission Ineffective. The annual average price of feedstock methanol was 2,403.12 RMB/ton (down 6.24% year-on-year), and liquid chlorine prices持续 weakened, even陷入 negative pricing困境, providing a cost缓冲 for dichloromethane. However, severe supply-demand imbalance completely offset this benefit. Cost reductions did not translate into profits, merely highlighting the dominant role of supply-demand矛盾. II. 2026 Market Outlook: Weak Volatility Predominant, Structural Opportunities Emerge In 2026, the dichloromethane industry will延续 the adjustment logic of 2025. However, supply-side structure optimization, export pressure on the demand side, and intensified cost-side differentiation will introduce new variables. The annual market will exhibit core characteristics of "marginal supply improvement, intensified demand differentiation, hindered cost transmission, and weak price volatility." (I) Supply Side: Slower Capacity Expansion + Capacity淘汰, Marginal Easing of Pressure The supply side in 2026 will延续 the high capacity base of 2025, but "slower expansion +淘汰 of落后产能" will alleviate some pressure, becoming the core driver for marginal improvement. • Limited New Capacity: Following the increase of methane chloride total capacity to 4.12 million tons/year in 2025, industry expansion momentum in 2026 will显著减弱. Several planned projects are delayed, with only a few like Gansu Juhua potentially progressing, significantly reducing the冲击 of new capacity on the market. • Accelerated淘汰 of落后产能: Policy-wise, aging facilities operating for over 20 years face pressure for green transformation or淘汰. Market-wise, the low prices and losses of 2025 will触及 the生存底线 of high-cost enterprises. Small and medium-sized facilities lacking industrial chain配套 and落后 technology will被动退出,推动 industry concentration towards integration and high-end development. • High Operating Rates Remain a Constraint: Despite ongoing capacity淘汰, without large-scale, long-term shutdowns or capacity exits, the industry's high operating rate situation will延续, remaining a core factor suppressing prices. Supply pressure will only阶段性缓解 during periods of proactive production cuts or concentrated maintenance. (II) Demand Side: Rigid Support + Export Pressure, Limited Overall Growth The demand side in 2026 will延续 the differentiated pattern of 2025. Rigid demand from R32 provides a floor, but萎缩 in traditional sectors and slowing export growth will constrain overall growth. Demand remains "supported but unremarkable." • Steady Growth in Rigid Demand: The production quota for refrigerant R32 in 2026 is approximately 282,000 tons, corresponding to dichloromethane consumption of about 507,000 tons, a微增 of 0.4% year-on-year. It continues to扮演 the market's "ballast" role, but the internal配套 procurement model still难以拉动 external market demand. • Accelerated萎缩 of Traditional Demand: Foaming agents will be完全禁用 from January 1, 2026. Aerosol propellants and certain release agents face policy restrictions. Traditional solvent sectors continue to lose share to low-toxicity, environmentally friendly alternatives, leading to永久性 demand削减. Demand in pharmaceuticals, metal cleaning, and other areas will remain疲软. • Slowing Export Growth, Emerging Policy Risks: Exports remain a key channel for消化过剩产能, but growth in 2026 is预计 to slow significantly from the 44.4% seen in 2025. Concurrently, dichloromethane being listed in the export control catalog for precursor chemicals, with countries like the US, Mexico, and Canada added to specific管控 regions, increases export compliance costs. This may constrain export growth to some markets, necessitating a持续 shift of focus towards emerging markets like Turkey and Vietnam. • Limited增量 from Emerging Demand: Although demand from emerging sectors like battery wet-process separators and fine chemicals shows growth, their share of total consumption is low, insufficient to offset萎缩 in traditional sectors, resulting in微弱拉动 on the overall market. (III) Cost Side: Intensified Differentiation, Integrated Enterprises' Advantage Highlighted The cost side in 2026 will延续 the differentiation logic of 2025. Methanol price fluctuations provide阶段性支撑, the advantage of integration in the liquid chlorine环节 is further amplified, and cost transmission efficiency remains constrained by the supply-demand格局. • Methanol:阶段性 Cost Support: Methanol prices in 2026 are预计 to center around 2,100-2,300 RMB/ton. Their波动方向 has long been highly correlated with the dichloromethane index, showing significant cost transmission effects. However, against the backdrop of oversupply, methanol price increases难以完全传导 to dichloromethane终端 prices, only forming a阶段性 cost底线 at low levels. • Liquid Chlorine: Sustained红利 for Integrated Enterprises: The liquid chlorine industry's格局 of overcapacity and疲软 demand will延续, with prices likely to remain low. Integrated enterprises with supporting chlor-alkali facilities will持续享受 cost advantages, enabling stable operation even during industry亏损 periods. Enterprises relying on external liquid chlorine procurement will face进一步加大的 cost pressure and持续压缩的 profit margins. (IV) Price Trend Forecast: Weak Volatility, Range-Bound Movement Considering supply-demand, cost, and policy factors, the dichloromethane market in 2026 will延续 the weak基调 of 2025. The price center may shift slightly downward compared to 2025,呈现 a pattern of "low-level volatility with weak, unsustainable rebounds." • Price Range: Prices are预计 to fluctuate between 1,700 and 2,300 RMB/ton for the year. Lows may approach the 2025 historic低点, while highs are难以突破 2,500 RMB/ton due to supply-demand imbalance压制. • Volatility Rhythm: During periods of concentrated maintenance or阶段性放量 in exports, prices may experience阶段性反弹 of 2%-5%. During traditional off-seasons with充分产能释放 and低迷 demand, prices will回归 a weak, gradual decline态势. III. Summary and Outlook The deep bottom of 2025 accumulated substantial adjustment pressure for the dichloromethane industry. As a critical transition year in 2026, the industry will enter a new phase of "accelerated capacity淘汰 and deepened structural optimization." However, the core矛盾 of supply-demand imbalance remains难以根本解决. The core conclusion for the annual market is: weak volatility为主, with structural opportunities replacing overall growth. Trend性价格上涨 is难现, with only阶段性修复 opportunities existing. At the enterprise competition level, leading companies with chlor-alkali integration, technological advantages, and畅通 export channels will持续抢占 market share, while中小高成本产能 will加速退出, further提升 industry concentration. For market participants, producers need to control inventory and focus on high-end products; traders should把握阶段性反弹 windows for quick turnover; downstream enterprises can purchase based on需求 and关注替代品 opportunities. In the long term, the industry needs to await signals of large-scale供给侧收缩 or超预期增长 in exports to truly脱离 the bottom区间 and enter a new平衡周期.