In January 2026, the domestic phenol market broke free from its early-month weakness, exhibiting a broad upward trend characterized by "bottoming out and rebounding, followed by sustained increases." This made it a highlight in the chemical market at the beginning of the year. According to monitoring data from 100ppi.com, the mainstream quotation in East China rose from 5,750 yuan per ton on January 1 to 6,250 yuan per ton on January 29, representing a cumulative increase of approximately 8.7% for the month. Significant changes in supply and demand, costs, and industrial chain dynamics drove the price to achieve a phased breakthrough.

The phenol market in East China followed a trajectory centered on "inventory digestion, cost-driven factors, and a tight supply-demand balance," gradually strengthening overall. At the beginning of the month, inventory at Jiangyin Port exceeded 21,000 tons, with a concentrated arrival of imported goods prompting holders to offer discounts, leading to a slight market decline. After mid-month, rising costs due to price increases in raw materials such as pure benzene and propylene, coupled with price adjustments led by major players like Sinopec, reduced plant operating rates, lower-than-expected imports, and pre-holiday restocking by downstream users, pushed quotations to 6,000–6,250 yuan per ton. This shifted the supply-demand dynamic toward a tight balance. Factories continued to raise prices, while downstream bisphenol A strengthened in tandem, resulting in active trading and accelerated price increases.

Cost-side support: Pure benzene and propylene, the dual raw materials, exhibited simultaneous strong upward momentum, providing rigid support. Pure benzene prices rose from 8,800 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month to over 9,500 yuan per ton by month-end, driven by high volatility in international crude oil, better-than-expected destocking in domestic styrene plants, and recovering demand. Propylene prices also increased due to maintenance shutdowns at several PDH units in Shandong, creating a temporary supply gap. To mitigate production cost pressures, phenol-ketone enterprises consistently raised phenol ex-factory quotations, becoming the core driver of market price increases.

Reversal in supply-demand dynamics: Supply contraction and demand recovery provided dual support, shifting the market from a loose to a tight supply-demand balance. On the supply side, mainstream domestic phenol-ketone enterprises scheduled maintenance ahead of the Spring Festival, with some plants operating at reduced rates, leading to a decrease in effective capacity release. Coupled with lower-than-expected arrivals of imported goods, total market supply continued to shrink. On the demand side, downstream bisphenol A and phenolic resins saw steady increases in rigid procurement volumes, driven by pre-holiday restocking demand for epoxy resins. Additionally, periodic stockpiling by traders further amplified demand, laying the foundation for price increases.

Declining port inventories and stronger price-supporting sentiments consolidated the upward price trend. As shipments continued, port inventories decreased from 21,000 tons at the beginning of the month to below 15,000 tons, establishing a tight supply-demand balance. Suppliers' willingness to sell at lower prices significantly diminished, with strong sentiments favoring price support and reluctance to sell. Price adjustments by leading enterprises consistently boosted market confidence, while pre-holiday stocking demand from end-users was released periodically. Rigid demand transactions continued to support the market, and stockpiling by traders amplified positive sentiment, creating a virtuous cycle that facilitated steady price increases.

As of January 29, phenol quotations in major domestic markets are as follows:
Region: Quotation on January 29